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Everything posted by MacGyver

  1. Early on in my career, someone told me something that's stuck with me for a lot of years. There is no them. Even if there was some organized cabal - they're just not smart enough to pull anything off on that kind of scale. Rephrased - never assign to malice what can reasonably be attributed to incompetence.
  2. Most of the manufacturers have good, free planning tools, too. You can do the design on a great system and then install it in whole or in parts.
  3. Here in Nashville my neighbor was quoted around $5500 for irrigation in a relatively small suburban yard - maybe 1500 sq ft once you take out all his landscaping He wound up doing it himself.
  4. Yeah, they don’t track worth anything. It’s not unlike paddling a small jon boat. They are stable - they do heel a bit until you get some water on the chines - but all boats that size are going to do that. That said, it shouldn’t be a problem in skinny water because you’ll likely be poling anyway. I wouldn’t look sideways at something like a Wilderness Systems Recon 12 if I came across one. Some of the Old Town stuff sits up high and is made for folks who may not be sized for the typical kayak - thus they’re pretty stable. Really stability in a paddle craft is all about beam width - you need something close to 40” for the average person to be comfortable standing. I think NuCanoe offer that leaning bar - which really does help you feel more confident. Where are you fishing? I was further south in Tampa bay a few days last week and the red tide has killed a ton of fish. I’ve never seen such a kill. My uncle is in Panacea and makes me laugh. He has his “milk run” for sea trout and oysters - he can head out in the kayak or his Kenner and be back with a limit on the smoker before you even realized he was gone.
  5. Seems like you ought be be able to find a classic for less than that new - maybe not with tax. Have you paddled one? They’ll go skinny - and with those hard chines they’re pretty stable. The classic can get pretty wet without scuppers. I’ll keep an eye out.
  6. Monoclonal antibodies are as close to a miracle treatment as we have for this thing - so long as they diagnose early and you get them early. Prayers for him and y’all. Keep us posted.
  7. They made the decision not to evacuate the hospitals in New Orleans since there are no beds in Texas or elsewhere in Louisiana. I get it, but that’s going to be a nightmare scenario if Ida does in fact make landfall as a Cat 4.
  8. The new generation “meatless” burgers are strange when you look at how it’s made. They’re taking protein from plants - adding enzymes - and basically making lab grown meat. It didn’t come from an animal - but it’s meat. I channel my grandfather on the stuff. He would have said, “I trust cows more than I trust chemists.”
  9. Was listening to a farm trade group this morning talking about the long term risks they see in a warming climate pushing yields way down. There were people in the group working on heat tolerant varieties - but then they were like, “but we can only do so much and expect yields to be impacted.” It was also interesting to hear them talk about hot air being able to hold a lot more water - thus producing more events like the one this weekend in Waverly - and how that much rain is basically as bad as no rain in a growing season. I’m just a data guy, but big agriculture is super interested in all this stuff.
  10. We’ve known for a while that one of the common lasting side effects of COVID is erectile dysfunction. That alone should be enough motivation for some folks.
  11. Hey, @maroonandwhite like most things Scientific American does, this is a pretty nerdy article, but has links to all the underlying studies on pregnancy and COVID. Definitely talk to your doctor - but this should give you good, evidence based information going in. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/covid-vaccines-show-no-signs-of-harming-fertility-or-sexual-function/
  12. A lady in our office turned down the shingles vaccine and came down with it two weeks later. It’s been months and she’s still not fully recovered. She said there were a couple of days where she thought it was going to kill her and that it would have come as a relief.
  13. FG and Alberto knots are both pretty easy to tiE and work well on tiny lines/leaders. With thin braid like the Suffix Ghost, I may do 15-20 turns. That said, don’t shy away from just loading up some simple monofilament and going fishing.
  14. He’s required to file a financial disclosure form with the Office of Government Ethics. It’s a public document so I’m sure it’s available online. If you dig into it, let us know.
  15. I’ll pull it when I’m not on mobile - which as of about 15 minutes ago may be a day or two. But, the data is available and public. There’s no secret cabal guarding it. It’s a matter of public record. The short answer is this - this vaccine has been developed more in public - and there has been more data gathered than any other vaccine we’ve ever developed. I’d actually be willing to wager we’ve got more data on these vaccines than we do every vaccine in history since we were blowing dried cow puss up peoples noses. The stakes were that high. Now, there have been other highly contagious, high stakes diseases. Think polio. But they just didn’t gather as much data back then. Same with small pox. Now, of course there have been volumes of data collected over time - both good and bad - there’s a reason they tell you that a possible side effect of that tetanus booster is paralysis or death. But, also remember that we’re not starting from zero. A lot of the science behind vaccine development isn’t new. Sure, mRNA vaccines are new. And if we’re honest, the risk associated with them is non-zero. But, it’s very low - and it’s certainly lower than the risks associated with COVID. If anything you can see the process working by how slow the approval process is actually going. You saw the pause in the Spring while they investigated the blood clot issue. That’s not a sign that they’re taking shortcuts. That’s a sign that the process is as rigorous as it should be.
  16. For what it’s worth, if you’ve got ETFs in your retirement fund, you’ve probably at least got Pfizer and J&j in there I deeply care about this community - and if I can help anyone - that’s all the reason I’ve got and all the motivation I need. Full stop. As a forensic professional I’ve had too many heart wrenching conversations this year with folks who have lost their loved ones. I’m not a front line worker by any stretch. But I’m so tired. Everyone I work with is just flat exhausted. I worry for our nurses’ and ambulance drivers’ mental well being. How many hands can you hold and cry as they die without their loved ones near? There is a metric ton of bad information out there. It’s become hard to figure out who to trust. If I can use my voice to help people find their way through it I will. Offer stands. DMs are open. Happy to talk anytime.
  17. First and foremost, your wife should have a conversation with her Ob/Gyn. It sounds like he or she has brought at least one child into the world for you - so they have a relationship with you and your wife and have your wellbeing at heart. There's a reason most doctors are going to ask about maternal vaccinations as a part of standard prenatal care. It's because mothers pass antibodies to their babies. So in that critical time in the first days of their life - they're still receiving protection from their mothers. Any doctor should be willing to spend the time with you to have this conversation. If they're not - it's a good prompt to find another doctor. You can always ask them to print you a copy of the UpToDate reference on anything. If you're not familiar with this - it's a resource that basically rounds up all the evidence-based clinical support data in one place https://learn.uptodate.com/global Here's specifically the resource for COVID-19: https://www.uptodate.com/contents/covid-19-epidemiology-virology-and-prevention And specifically on pregnancy questions here: https://www.uptodate.com/contents/covid-19-and-pregnancy-questions-and-answers?search=covid pregnancy&source=search_result&selectedTitle=2~150&usage_type=default&display_rank=2 To quote the relevant section But, the best answer overwhelmingly is to talk to your Ob/Gyn
  18. Do y’all use it under a float? I find that helps a bunch. I don’t know that I’ve ever used the SOS. I always mean to pick one up. I think I usually just use some Seagur Blue Label. Man that stuff is hard to tie. I can barely see it.
  19. I think we've all witnessed a giant failing in our public health arm of the government. Here's some stuff that I expect y'all have been thinking about same as me. I wonder if we were so ill-prepared for this because for decades we thought pandemics were things that happened in places that we don't really care about? That may be overly critical, but the CDC and others really seem to have been caught flat-footed here. This is a place where "the media" hasn't helped. Wanting to drive clicks by looking at "both sides" hasn't helped to get people better data to make better decisions. I think our public health infrastructure has really done a disservice by talking in "faculty lounge language" instead of speaking plainly to the American public about what we know and what we don't know. So many of these folks have focused more on being right than they have in admitting that we're shooting at a moving target and what we thought 8 months ago may have changed. Lesson learned - going forward, we need to train/hire more science communicators who can take complex data and put it into a form that we all can understand. I do want to address the vaccine development. To be clear the only things that were shortcut in the Warp Speed process were the funding delays that are normal in vaccine development and the government bureaucracy (to a lesser extent - government is going to government). We have more actual data regarding these vaccines than we have any vaccine in history. The average vaccine development timeline is about 12 years. There's not 12 years of science happening in there. There is 12 years worth of waiting on funding and need studies and places like the FDA where pay day is still on Friday whether they pick up your application or not. It's totally fair to be a bit nervous about trusting something new. mRNA technology has been around for a while - but we've not applied it like this. To be clear - one of the geneticists I mentioned in my post above who I would absolutely trust my life to - waited a couple of days to really dig into the data before she made the decision to vaccinate her children. It's okay to acknowledge that nervousness - and not beat people up about it. The hard thing right now is that this virus is demanding that we move very quickly - and that's something that we're generally just not built for. There are things we still don't know. Could there be some long tail side effect of mRNA vaccines we don't know about - you bet there could be. But, we've been researching these things since the late 60's and haven't seen evidence of it yet. So, measured against the potential side effects of COVID - which are death at worst and increasing long COVID cases - it's probably worth it to choose the vaccine even in light of the unknowns.
  20. If I had to go through and just pick one color - it would be chartreuse/white. If the water is really cloudy I might go with a chartreuse/black or straight black. Like above, I don't know that I've ever failed to catch something on a trout magnet. And rigged ultralight it's so much fun - my goto is a St. Croix panfish rod and a 500 size Penn Battle III rigged with 6lbs Suffix Ghost and topped with 2lbs flourocarbon leader.
  21. The best data we have right now is to suggest a mRNA booster (Moderna or Pfizer in the US) to follow J&J 8 months after initial vaccination. You're young and healthy - so you don't need to rush it. I expect you'll see this timeline continue to change as we get better data on breakthroughs and measured antibody response.
  22. I'm a forensic scientist. To be clear - I don't work as an epidemiologist or immunologist - but I work with people who've dedicated their whole lives to those disciplines - and I trust them with my life. I'm comfortable with data - I turn to them for nuance. Two things up front: This is going to be a nuanced post. The left and the right both do something really poorly - and it's hurting us right now. The left has this "trust the science" narrative that they love but they have no idea what that actually means. It often gets pushed in the media as "trust me - you're too stupid to know what you're talking about." Thus on the right - people push back against that narrative for a variety of reasons. Maybe they don't trust the people on the left. Maybe they just don't want to be talked down to and told what to do. Whatever. I get it. But it's killing us right now. We've got to do better regardless of where we fall on the political spectrum. Science is not truth. Science is the pursuit of truth - and hopefully through rigorous processes we get closer to the truth. If you want an easy way to distinguish between whether or not you should trust someone regarding "science" listen to whether they talk more about what they know or what they don't know. If you choose to listen to someone - pick the latter. The scientists I know and trust are absolutely terrified right now. There's a whole lot we still don't know. Graphs like the one @mikegideonposted above are truly scary. We're about to see some very dark days ahead. That's an exponential curve on that graph - and the thing about exponential growth is that if you're going to change it the only time it really matters is when it seems too early. We're too late. So with those caveats out of the way - here's the best we've got right now: @deerslayer to your question on the Pfizer vaccine - yes all of the vaccines are dropping double digits in effectiveness right now. They're still really good at keeping you out of the hospital with serious illness and are good at preventing death. But, with the transmission numbers we're seeing - it's clear that breakthrough infections are happening. Here's a chart showing the most recent controlled studies grouped into one place: That's a lot of data in one place - but basically if you remember the 95%+ numbers you saw back in the spring - they're all dropping a bunch right now. Pfizer went from 97% effectiveness reported at 2 months to 84% reported at 5-6 months (and those studies ended in May which means current real world data is likely worse.) If I had to pick a vaccine today I'd choose Moderna as it seems most effective against the variants. But the viruses are still mutating/evolving. So couple in the fact that the virus is mutating to avoid the vaccines and that antibody levels naturally sag over time - and you're going to see more infections. Another major factor is that our behavior patterns are changing - especially among the vaccinated - we're out and about and the viral load we're exposed to on a daily basis is likely to be pretty high. So often in science, we learn in the rearview mirror. We don't get that luxury here. But, if you think about the efficacy rates measured in the Spring - most people were still staying inside. They just weren't that exposed by and large. That's different now. We're seeing a lot of breakthrough infections right now. So many in fact that the public health people can't seem to be honest with people and just say "vaccinated people can get it and spread it" without contradicting what they've been saying about the wild (alpha) variant. This delta variant doesn't behave like the wild variant. That said, the vaccines still perform quite well at keeping you out of the hospital and prevent you from dying. So, with all that - how do you take action. Here's what we're doing in my family: Get vaccinated if you haven't already. You can literally do it on your coffee break by walking into practically any pharmacy in America. Here's the best source for finding one near you (https://www.vaccines.gov) If I were choosing what vaccine to get right now - I'd choose Moderna. It still seems most effective against the variants. But - you're looking at two shots spaced over three weeks - so a total of five weeks to full immunity. So, if you've not been vaccinated at all it might be worth it to consider the J&J single shot for a quicker response time. If you're wanting an mRNA vaccine but are sketchy about the EUA status - Pfizer should have full approval as soon as this afternoon. Talk to your doctor about it. They have a relationship with you and can give you the best information they've got. If you are vaccinated - don't give your immunity a stress test. This delta variant is causing breakthrough infections. We're out and about more - and thus exposed to higher viral loads. I know we all got rid of the masks this Spring - but for the next little bit it's worth picking them back up. As to children - multiple things can be true at once - the overall risk to children is pretty low - and COVID rocketed into the leading causes of death amongst children in less than a year. Two of my three are vaccinated - and my youngest would be if he could get away with telling the doctor he was 12. For the next 6-8 weeks, I'd probably stay off of tall ladders and other stuff that could put me in the hospital if I had an accident. Like @E4 No More experienced above - if you need an ICU bed right now - you're likely to have to wait for someone to die first. If you're immunocompromised - you're likely already talking to your doctor about an additional mRNA shot. They can measure antibody response to make sure you're fully protected. If you're in a group that got vaccinated back in January/February - you're likely to be eligible for an mRNA booster soon. Talk to your doctor about it. The data shows lagging antibody response over time. If you got infected with the original variant - and it's been more than a few months - it's probably worth getting vaccinated. We know that the vaccines generate a higher antibody response. I know a couple of people who had the original variant and have since died after contracting delta. Talk to the people you care about. There's no harm in offering a sort of collective off ramp. Just because you've held out so far - doesn't mean you can't change your mind when presented with new data. Viruses should get less lethal over time - this one isn't doing that yet. If you'd like to do some more reading from that highlights what we know and what we don't - this is pretty current: https://www.realclearscience.com/articles/2021/08/23/lets_stop_pretending_about_the_covid-19_vaccines_791050.html I'm happy to answer any questions anyone has. I know that I don't know a lot of you personally - but this is a community that I really care about. I'm tired of losing people to this thing. Feel free to give me a shout or shoot me a DM if I can help at all.
  23. Glad you're still with us! I know y'all have family and friends around you - but if y'all need anything - let me know.


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