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SARS-2-CoV (COVID-19)

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, Grayfox54 said:

That's my thought. When a person coughs or sneezes, they can spray a fine mist of bodily fluids up to what? About 10 feet? Having a mask on would catch most of that. Thus limiting the spread. 

You guys are onto something. It's not just sneezing though. Even talking.

Check this out.

https://www.lavision.de/en/news/2020/4302/

 

Edited by Erik88
Typo

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4 hours ago, bud said:

I'm not a huge Trump defender, and I realize his mouth often overruns his brain. That being said, right now we're at approx 8,500 deaths in the USA. If at the end of the year we have 10x that number, then its the equivalent to the amount of deaths in a very bad Flu year.

....

- First of all, we have no idea what the tally will be by the end of the year. Last projection from IHME is 93K by early August.

- Whether Covid 19 "goes away" by then is anybody's guess. It could, and then come back in the fall and kick ass even worse (as did the Spanish flu in 1918. It could be that as soon as social distancing is relaxed, it could get worse again at any time.

- As Erik pointed out, it's the concentration of cases here and there that is so different. Pig shyte ain't a problem for example, indeed is even helpful as a fertilizer, but when a bizzilion gallons of it stored in NC holding pits is released due to a hurricane into streams and ground water, it becomes a big problem. When localized individual health systems are overwhelmed, the death rate becomes higher, there's less overall quality of care for the normal flow of other maladies, etc, so death count of those mount also.

- Covid 19 is not a form of influenza, and that brings up a number of "ifs". We don't know for sure if people can get reinfected after kicking it. If so, is it complete immunity, partial with reduced symptoms or what? If complete immunity, how long does it last? Etc. There is some evidence emerging that many victims are left with compromised respiratory systems after recovering, which if true will only lead to ongoing health problems down the road.

- And overall, there's still a lot of mystery about this virus. Why do some young people, just like the elderly, suddenly crash and die within just a few days after seemingly getting over nothing worse than a mild flu infection? Will it mutate? If so, will it mutate to a less or more lethal form? It seems to be more contagious than any seasonal flu in the last 90 years or so. Etc etc.

The only sure thing is that we honestly don't know what's going to happen. The only sure thing is that all bets are off until a vaccine can be developed and distributed.  All we know is that it's BAD, and we're looking at likelihood of it being just as BAD, or WORSE, for another year or more. The uncertainly as to severity, duration, and overall effects is what makes it so much more scary than any influenza season in the last 90 years or more.

- OS

 

 

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Masks that are good for the COVID-19 virus are hard to breath thru especially for folks who need the protection, people with compromise breathing.

I have use the type they say is needed for hostile environments and believe me they are hard to breath thru and get very hot, enough so that doing anything makes you sweat and lowers the mask effectiveness!

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, Oh Shoot said:

 

Edited to add-  my off the cuff math was way off there. I guess 10% of total pop. would have to be infected for 93K to die at current mortality rates

Edited by bud
my math sucked

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, bud said:

I realize mortality rates can rise, but at current US covid-19 avg. mortality rates, for there to be 93,000 deaths due to covid-19 by early August 2020 wouldn't that require a number of total infected to be a number the size of, and perhaps larger than, the entire US population?

Point being, if 2.5% of folks infected die from it, for 93K to die by early August, would not everyone in the entire United States have to be infected?

Again, I realize rates of mortality could increase as hospitals are overwhelmed, etc.

Out of the +/- 41,000 Tennesseans who thought they may be infected and who have been tested and had results returned, only +/- 3,000 have actually been infected. What I'm getting at is that there are still not that many confirmed cases, and while I don't dispute the viruses level of contagiousness(?), I do think that there is a very high percentage of folks who's bodies don't have too big of a problem beating it.

Math. 
 

try 3,720,000 x 2.5%. 

Edited by GlockSpock
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Just now, GlockSpock said:

Math. 
 

try 3,720,00 x 2.5%. 

yeah caught that earlier and edited myself, but thanks.

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6 minutes ago, bud said:

I realize mortality rates can rise, but at current US covid-19 avg. mortality rates, for there to be 93,000 deaths due to covid-19 by early August 2020 wouldn't that require a number of total infected to be a number the size of, and perhaps larger than, the entire US population?

We don't have any idea how many people have been infected with the virus, and hence the exact death % compared to total infection.

6 minutes ago, bud said:

Point being, if 2.5% of folks infected die from it, for 93K to die by early August, would not everyone in the entire United States have to be infected?

???  2.5% of our entire population is over 8 million.

- OS

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Posted (edited)

Or...only ten times the current US confirmed cases. 
 

If it doubles every few days....we could be there by the end of the April. 

Edited by GlockSpock

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, GlockSpock said:

Math. 
 

try 3,720,000 x 2.5%. 

Yep. And I know it feels like we've been quarantined forever but we're still in the early stages. We have 333k cases. 6 days ago it was half that. We could be over a million in the next 7-10 days.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

Edited by Erik88

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4 minutes ago, Oh Shoot said:

We don't have any idea how many people have been infected with the virus, and hence the exact death % compared to total infection.

???  2.5% of our entire population is over 8 million.

- OS

yeah caught that and editied but I guess you were already replying like others. Maybe I was having a Trumpian moment and my mouth outran my brain :)

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7 hours ago, Erik88 said:

Is it possible the shortcomings came from from both the system and the administration? This one and the last?

If I were a politician sitting on the precipice of society's collapse, I'd be walking a very reformed straight and narrow these days.  Some of these idiots just act like they WANT to be dragged into the streets by angry constituents.  They might get it, if that's what they are after.

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1 hour ago, DWARREN123 said:

Masks that are good for the COVID-19 virus are hard to breath thru especially for folks who need the protection, people with compromise breathing.

I have use the type they say is needed for hostile environments and believe me they are hard to breath thru and get very hot, enough so that doing anything makes you sweat and lowers the mask effectiveness!

Exactly. Industrial hygenists everywhere are rolling their eyes at these home-made masks. They may help keep sick people (who should be at home anyway, regardless of what they have) from spreading the virus, but they won't prevent well people from getting it. 

 

20 minutes ago, TGO David said:

If I were a politician sitting on the precipice of society's collapse, I'd be walking a very reformed straight and narrow these days.  Some of these idiots just act like they WANT to be dragged into the streets by angry constituents.  They might get it, if that's what they are after.

We went to Jamaica on our honeymoon 20 years ago.  While there, I distinctly recall a conversation with a local who criticized American politics.  He said we elect crooks who screw us and we do nothing about it.  "Not 'ere mon... we drag 'em into da street and beat 'em to death mon. They learn not to f&&k us 'ere mon."  

Theres something to be said for a little fear to improve accountability.  :)  

 

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7 minutes ago, peejman said:

Exactly. Industrial hygenists everywhere are rolling their eyes at these home-made masks. They may help keep sick people (who should be at home anyway, regardless of what they have) from spreading the virus, but they won't prevent well people from getting it.

Yep. Workers need to be protected; especially those working in food processing that we absolutely need while everyone figures out what’s next. But that can’t happen because they say the medical workers need them.

7 minutes ago, peejman said:

We went to Jamaica on our honeymoon 20 years ago.  While there, I distinctly recall a conversation with a local who criticized American politics.  He said we elect crooks who screw us and we do nothing about it.  "Not 'ere mon... we drag 'em into da street and beat 'em to death mon. They learn not to f&&k us 'ere mon."  

Theres something to be said for a little fear to improve accountability.  :)  

Someone made a remark on here (I think) one day about Illinois Governor’s all being put in prison. Someone countered with at least they put them in prison; unlike Tennessee. :)

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9 minutes ago, DaveTN said:

This can't be good. 

A house cat in Belgium I think it was tested positive last week.

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Wow, DJT is a highway construction engineer too, explains how it's done all wrong. Who knew?

- OS

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2 hours ago, DaveTN said:

This can't be good. 

Have they (we) ever tested critters for any of the various flu type viruses that go around before now?  If the virus is airborne, it makes sense that anything that breathes air will contract it regardless of whether it causes any symptoms. 

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, Erik88 said:

Is it possible the shortcomings came from from both the system and the administration? This one and the last? We have a lot of people that will just refuse to admit how badly Trump screwed this up.


Yes

 

10 hours ago, Grayfox54 said:

I believe that the purpose of recommending home made masks isn't to prevent you from getting the virus, its to prevent asymptomatic people from spreading it.  


Well... yes.   In the end, that accomplishes the same task. If you're sick and don't know it, it mitigates the chances that you will spread it to others. If you're not sick but everyone else is wearing source control, it reduces the chances that you will become infected.  Tackling this problem from both ends. The approaches aren't mutually exclusive and work best together.  That's why health care providers wear N95 / Eye Pro / Gowns / Gloves /  Practice hand hygiene / Minimize contact time / Practice social distancing..... AND put a mask on the patient.

Source control only works if sources practice it, and what a lot of us have been trying to drive home here is that everyone is a potential source, even if you don't feel sick, since you can spread this well before you feel sick yourself, to a more significant degree than other things we're familiar with like Flu.
 

8 hours ago, Erik88 said:

You guys are onto something. It's not just sneezing though. Even talking.


And breathing, even.

All of this was well known since early March.  The information was not appropriately disseminated by officials.
 

Edited by Refleks
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Posted (edited)

IHME database belatedly just updated.

It is MUCH less dire than previous, for example overall US death prediction by August fell by 12,000 and TN went from 3422 to 587!

This "assuming full social distancing through May 2020".

Wow! More light at the end of a shorter tunnel?

This is supposed to be based on actual statistical data trends, but almost wonder if they found a big flaw in the model or something?

edit: oh yeah, the URL again:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

- OS

Edited by Oh Shoot
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9 hours ago, Oh Shoot said:

....

This is supposed to be based on actual statistical data trends, but almost wonder if they found a big flaw in the model or something?

.....

Ah, detailed explanation in their update notes section:

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

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1 hour ago, Oh Shoot said:

Ah, detailed explanation in their update notes section:

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

Funny how computer models suddenly become much more accurate when you input reliable data and already know the correct answer. 

I also enjoy the "estimates do not include uncertainty" caveat. Because if they did, you might realize we really have no idea. :D 

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42 minutes ago, peejman said:

Funny how computer models suddenly become much more accurate when you input reliable data and already know the correct answer. 

I also enjoy the "estimates do not include uncertainty" caveat. Because if they did, you might realize we really have no idea. :D 

I've found that the best purpose of models/projecting isn't to think you know the answer, but to force deliberate thought and planning.  In my organization, almost all of the models I present make us go in the direction of "what if" on an idea looking at the model brings out.

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11 hours ago, Oh Shoot said:

IHME database belatedly just updated.

It is MUCH less dire than previous, for example overall US death prediction by August fell by 12,000 and TN went from 3422 to 587!

This "assuming full social distancing through May 2020".

Wow! More light at the end of a shorter tunnel?

This is supposed to be based on actual statistical data trends, but almost wonder if they found a big flaw in the model or something?

edit: oh yeah, the URL again:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

- OS

Y'all remember the Governor of Kentucky critizing Gov. Lee for not doing anything.  Kentucky's death rate is projected to be 3 times Tennessee's now.  587 Vs 1750.  And their population is about 2/3 of ours.  Don't get me wrong.  I sure no joy in those numbers.  That's a lot of people.  Just thought that Gov. Beshears was much better off to keep his mouth shut.

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