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Social Distancing Doesn't Work!


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5 minutes ago, E4 No More said:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/teen-in-remote-amazonian-tribe-tests-positive-for-coronavirus

It'd be interesting hearing the doctors try to explain this one!

My guess is they don’t know who can and can’t get it. That boy was probably in contact with someone. But then, they told us pets can’t get it and it can’t be spread by pets other than the virus directly on their fur. But then a Tiger tested positive. That’s opens a whole bunch of questions I don’t hear anyone asking at these daily briefings.

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3 hours ago, gregintenn said:

Mosquitoes?

Everything I have read , is that mosquitoes cannot transmit the virus.  The infection rate would definitely increase substantially.  I am wondering about flies though.  Flies are a large vector for many diseases like Typhoid, Dysentery, Leprosy, Cholera, parasites, etc..  When I was in Africa I always had to avoid letting flies get on my food due to Typhoid risk and they sickened a lot of people.  Met lots of people with Typhoid and it is a big killer around the world.

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I think you have come to the wrong conclusion. 

The goal of social distancing is to slow the spread of the illness.  By itself, it will not halt the spread of the illness.

Now, as to how this could occur, there are multiple possibilities.  

Coronavirus is a large family of viruses. Although most common colds are rhinovirus; coronavirus, parainfluenza, and rsv are all fairly common agents as well.  It isn’t clear if he has covid-19 or one of the other coronaviruses. 

Any test will have a false positive and false negative rate.   Recently, the cdc has said perhaps as much as 20% of our current tests are falsely negative. I have not seen any of the labs quote their false positive rates.

It is not clear if the covid-19 virus has a transmission vector other than humans. If it has an animal vector, this may be the mode of transmission. 

Recent MIT research suggests a much greater distance of spread than the 6 feet that we use when discussing influenza. 

Lastly, there are many things that I known that have been proven totally wrong. Therefore, absolutely nothing I have said may, in the end, be correct.

 In a handgun class I took a few years ago, the instructor kept talking about time and distance. That seems to be  good advice here, also. Spend as little time with crowds as possible and stay as far away from crowds as possible.  May you all stay safe.

 

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On 4/12/2020 at 12:25 PM, mhmd said:

Any test will have a false positive and false negative rate.   Recently, the cdc has said perhaps as much as 20% of our current tests are falsely negative. I have not seen any of the labs quote their false positive rates.

How do they know if they have a false positive or false negative? 

Edited by DaveTN
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Now some interesting studies may indicate that the pandemic started much sooner, and is more widespread than originally thought. This would explain it reaching a remote area so soon.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/antibody-research-indicates-coronavirus-may-be-far-more-widespread-than-known/ar-BB12MFWL?li=BBnbcA1

https://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2020/04/covid-19-outbreak-may-have-started-in-september-say-british-scientists.html

Edited by E4 No More
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12 minutes ago, E4 No More said:

Considering the current pandemic, the article says it's Coronavirus, and the kid is in an ICU, it's a good presumption that it's COVID-19.

I’m talking in general. 61,000 people died in the U.S. of the flu during the 2017-2018 Flu Season. That’s twice the deaths we have right now from Covid19. Yes, I understand it’s a shorter period, but I would suspect tens of thousands of the deaths we are seeing now are something other than Covid19. Why would a test showing negative on a sick person be assumed to be a false negative? Could it not be they are dying from something that is not Covid19?

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3 hours ago, DaveTN said:

Why would a test showing negative on a sick person be assumed to be a false negative?

It should not be assumed to be a false negative. It is all in the context of the situation.

Rarely do we (humans) make a decision based on a single point of information. The test is just one point of information. Symptoms, disease activity in the area, timing, and yes our own experiences all combine to form a picture. Do we get the picture wrong sometimes? Absolutely!

However, when you see this number of deaths congregated, most likely you have a common cause. Have some of these deaths been from something other than covid. Probably. “Tens of thousands” is highly unlikely. 

Stay safe.  A high percentage of us on here (older, male, other medical issues) are at greatest risk with this thing. 

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I am the last person that needs to be talking about this issue but have a question? They said this virus was created in a bio-lab in China and got loose and spread across the world. Ok then that would make it a man made virus if that is actually the case. Ok so I have heard doctors and or scientists say that this virus could come back next Fall with the Flu season we experience every year. If that were the case would China  not have to release it again for that to happen? Like I said I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer but if it is truly a man made virus how can it return every year unless man releases it every year?? 

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6 minutes ago, bersaguy said:

I am the last person that needs to be talking about this issue but have a question? They said this virus was created in a bio-lab in China and got loose and spread across the world. Ok then that would make it a man made virus if that is actually the case. Ok so I have heard doctors and or scientists say that this virus could come back next Fall with the Flu season we experience every year. If that were the case would China  not have to release it again for that to happen? Like I said I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer but if it is truly a man made virus how can it return every year unless man releases it every year?? 

As far as I know, no one is claiming its man made. An employee was infected in a lab, and then went out and infected others. It will remain constantly, so, no, China wouldn’t need to have anything to do with it from now on.

Why would you be the last person that needs to be talking about this? We are all talking about this; it impacts us all, and could impact you whether you get the virus or not.

Edited by DaveTN
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59 minutes ago, bersaguy said:

I am the last person that needs to be talking about this issue but have a question? They said this virus was created in a bio-lab in China and got loose and spread across the world. Ok then that would make it a man made virus if that is actually the case. Ok so I have heard doctors and or scientists say that this virus could come back next Fall with the Flu season we experience every year. If that were the case would China  not have to release it again for that to happen? Like I said I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer but if it is truly a man made virus how can it return every year unless man releases it every year?? 

Once the virus is out, its out functionally forever. People thought that diseases like polio and small pox had been eradicated through vaccines, but the no-vax movement has illustrated that they're still around. The vast majority of people have immunity to it, but that doesnt mean the virus is gone. C19 will be no different. 

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30 minutes ago, DaveTN said:

As far as I know, no one is claiming its man made. An employee was infected in a lab, and then went out and infected others. It will remain constantly, so, no, China wouldn’t need to have anything to do with it from now on.

Why would you be the last person that needs to be talking about this? We are all talking about this; it impacts us all, and could impact you whether you get the virus or not.

Well, I have just never figured myself as smart enough to discuss things that require technical thought as I am not at that level of knowledge. That is why I have to ask questions. Well if an employee in a lab where the virus was created  would that not make it man made at least? If the doctors and scientists are correct that would mean we will be going though this for the rest or out lives or until they can product a vaccine such as the one they have for the flu that people get every Fall. I know I get one every Fall from my doctor and so far have been flu free every year. I won't give all the credit to the shot and just base some of it on luck of avoiding it. As I get older I try to avoid crowds also and since this mess showed up I have become very familiar with every part of my house and am thankful I moved here when I did cause my SIL and daughter have been doing all my shopping since it started. They do mine when they do theirs. My diet has changed some also. Sometimes things on my list are not on the shelves and they have to do pot luck but they always bring home food that I can prepare and so far it's not bad. I had a buddy make me a gallon of disinfectant and a spray bottle but have not had to use it yet as I lucked up and got 4 cans of Lysol and 3 large bottles of hand sanitizer that I have been using sparingly till daughter can find more on shelves when she goes to the store.  I wash my hands several times a day also after putting up groceries when they arrive. I'm also very glad I have Darby. She is great company and has been even more spoiled since this began. We will go for a couple walks each day. She looks forward to them even though she has a doggie door that she goes in an out of she still enjoys our walks. Well I guess I better close this and post it. Take care all and stay safe.

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1 hour ago, DaveTN said:

As far as I know, no one is claiming its man made. An employee was infected in a lab, and then went out and infected others. It will remain constantly, so, no, China wouldn’t need to have anything to do with it from now on.

 

1 hour ago, bersaguy said:

I am the last person that needs to be talking about this issue but have a question? They said this virus was created in a bio-lab in China and got loose and spread across the world. Ok then that would make it a man made virus if that is actually the case. Ok so I have heard doctors and or scientists say that this virus could come back next Fall with the Flu season we experience every year. If that were the case would China  not have to release it again for that to happen? Like I said I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer but if it is truly a man made virus how can it return every year unless man releases it every year?? 

What Dave said. It was not bio-engineered but rather being studied in the lab. Coming back is not an appropriate description. As long as there's life forms to infect, and those life forms come in contact with each other, the virus is still around hopping from one victim to another. What's being referred to as "social distancing" happens naturally when warmer weather hits because people are out doing things, and there's more ultra-violet light exposure to kill the virus outside of the body. Thus, transmission slows way down. It will migrate between victims and then explode again when colder weather sets in and we get closer together again.

Edited by E4 No More
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2 minutes ago, peejman said:

Once the virus is out, its out functionally forever. People thought that diseases like polio and small pox had been eradicated through vaccines, but the no-vax movement has illustrated that they're still around. The vast majority of people have immunity to it, but that doesnt mean the virus is gone. C19 will be no different. 

Yea, I have heard that some people have contracted those diseases long after most people have forgot about them even being around back many years ago. I had a brother that had polio. 

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12 minutes ago, bersaguy said:

 If the doctors and scientists are correct that would mean we will be going though this for the rest or out lives or until they can product a vaccine such as the one they have for the flu that people get every Fall.

Yes, it will be around until there is a vaccine. They are saying probably 12-18 months. However, there are several in trials right now. Every country on earth is throwing money at it, and every one that works in that field is trying to develop a vaccine.

12 minutes ago, bersaguy said:

I know I get one every Fall from my doctor and so far have been flu free every year. I won't give all the credit to the shot and just base some of it on luck of avoiding it. 

Your flu shot changes every year for the strains your Doctor thinks is most likely in your area. When a vaccine for this is developed it will be included if your Doctor thinks you are at risk. None of them are a magic bullet, that’s why people that have the shots can still contract the flu. 

 

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6 minutes ago, DaveTN said:

Yes, it will be around until there is a vaccine. They are saying probably 12-18 months. However, there are several in trials right now. Every country on earth is throwing money at it, and every one that works in that field is trying to develop a vaccine.

Your flu shot changes every year for the strains your Doctor thinks is most likely in your area. When a vaccine for this is developed it will be included if your Doctor thinks you are at risk. None of them are a magic bullet, that’s why people that have the shots can still contract the flu. 

 

Thank you for the information. I guess my doctor has guessed right so far or I have just been lucky. She does tell me every year that there is still a chance I could get the flu but by having the shot the flu I get will not be as bad and if I didn't have a shot so I get the shot. I hope that a lab somewhere does find that magic bullet that can at least cut down the loss of life from the virus and do like the flu shot does and make the flu tolerable to deal with if you do catch it. I will never understand the people that have a vaccine available to them to prevent such diseases like Polio, Small Pox, Measles and other bad things out there and won't get the shots.

   My brother next oldest to me contracted all 3 levels of the polio disease at age 4 and he was the first person to survive the disease. He was one of the first people to be placed in an Iron Lung in the United States. He was in it for over 1.5 years but it saved his life. He was crippled in one leg and both arms and hands and the doctors said he would be lucky to live to age 18. Well he went to college, got a degree in bookkeeping, went to work for the IRS for 17 years, got married, had a daughter and passed away peacefully in his sleep at age 42 so he beat the odds because he was not a quitter. The doctor said that his heart just quit working while he was asleep and he passed away without making a sound according to his wife that was laying beside him. 

  Anyone who has the Vaccine available and does not get it deserves what ever they get......JMHO

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2 hours ago, E4 No More said:

 

What Dave said. It was not bio-engineered but rather being studied in the lab. Coming back is not an appropriate description. As long as there's life forms to infect, and those life forms come in contact with each other, the virus is still around hopping from one victim to another. What's being referred to as "social distancing" happens naturally when warmer weather hits because people are out doing things, and there's more ultra-violet light exposure to kill the virus outside of the body. Thus, transmission slows way down. It will migrate between victims and then explode again when colder weather sets in and we get closer together again.

If that is the case, where did the lab get the virus. I was under the impression it was new.

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11 minutes ago, gregintenn said:

If that is the case, where did the lab get the virus. I was under the impression it was new.

There are who knows how many “new” viruses in the wild that have not jumped to humans. 
 

Bats carry lots of then. 
 

Viruses also mutate. 
 

Scientists like studying things. 

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3 hours ago, gregintenn said:

If that is the case, where did the lab get the virus. I was under the impression it was new.

 

Remember Mission Impossible 2?  In order to create the ultimate vaccine, you must create the ultimate virus.

 

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