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Investing 2021


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9 minutes ago, QuackerSmacker said:

Mostly.  Being kinda greedy right now.  That's probably not extremely smart.

I wouldn’t call it dumb. A lot of folks have made a lot of money on it this far. I did not.

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Fwiw, my career shifted from indirect to  mortgage lending.

Treasury rates / yields  have creeping up over the last 3 weeks, the Fed is planning for inflation and there our hundreds of millions of dollars of idle cash sitting in checking and savings accounts. It's crushing the balance sheet of my company as well every depositary institution in the country.

I have zero clue how that filters down and impacts the overall economy or my retirement portfolio, just a general bit of info for those smarter than I.

Home values in Knoxville are strong because there are so few home for sale under $300,000.

Homes for first time buyers from $125,000 - $250,000 are gone in days vs. weeks.

If you want to downsize as empty nesters, you'll make premium if selling reasonably turn key, but you'll pay full market value for your next home.

 My 401K and rollover IRAs are doing well, I have meeting to see if I need to change anything for risk.

I have 13 to 17 years of runway left if health allows. I do hope it is with my current organization.

Because of my age, I can increase my 401k, will need to figure a "what if" against potential tax increase.

Edited by A.J. Holst
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VTSAX (or VFIAX) and Chill.

Invest excess cash in the above after paying bills if your emergency fund is loaded and you're not paying off bad debt.  401k and IRAs (traditional or Roth) are better than taxable, but taxable is fine for long term (>5yrs) saving goals.  Best not to blow off retirement savings, especially if you can get a match from your employer along the way.

Rinse, lather, repeat. 

Don't get cute.

 

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Here's what you want to buy.  These are my best ideas after retiring from 40+ years of this stuff.  I'm not going to elaborate on any of these, just Google them, then decide.  You're on your own, because you're not paying me a dime!

ATOM

CRLBF

EXPI

FAN   Wind energy. Imagine that.

GDXJ

GLD

ICLN

LIT

NIO

RIOT  ***Buy, but at this point not much! It's a pure Bitcoin play. They make Bitcoins. Buy a little bit, if Bitcoin goes nuts, you're golden.

SLV

SILJ 

SPXU    is a 3X ETF on the downside moving value of the S&P500.   Important to have as a hedge.

TAN   Solar energy. Imagine that.

 

That is all.  Good luck everyone!   

Oh, and TSLA.  It's probably the best play out there.  I just can't bring myself to pay that kind of valuation.  But I'm probably making a huge mistake.  This may be one of the most world class companies of all time.  

 

 

 

Edited by QuackerSmacker
clarifying the 3X factor on SPXU applies to the downside. If S&P500 goes up 1%, SPXU will go down.
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4 hours ago, MacGyver said:

Please - for the love of all that's good - don't "invest" and tell the people you love not to "invest" in Bitcoin.

Thanks for coming to my TED talk.

 

Assuming you type at the normal rate and including a quick proof, I figure you have 17.5 mins left on your aloted speaking time.  🙂

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17 minutes ago, Trekbike said:

Assuming you type at the normal rate and including a quick proof, I figure you have 17.5 mins left on your aloted speaking time.  🙂

I’m reserving my time.

I’ve got a few more I can bring out when needed. 

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4 hours ago, MacGyver said:

I'd very much file this under, "if I need to call someone when I can't print this funny meme I saw on Facebook from my iPad" - then I probably shouldn't give any real serious thought to maintaining a bitcoin wallet.

 

 

You just described a lot of C-level executives.  😄

 

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1 minute ago, TGO David said:

You just described a lot of C-level executives.  😄

 

In which case you can expand that rule past Bitcoin to all sorts of projects that’ll immediately begin to accrue technical debt. 

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1 hour ago, MacGyver said:

In which case you can expand that rule past Bitcoin to all sorts of projects that’ll immediately begin to accrue technical debt. 

Not sure what you mean by "technical debt."  

Here's what Wikipedia  has to say about it:    PLEASE TELL ME THERE'S A MORE SIMPLE DEFINITION !!    ???

Technical debt (also known as design debt[1] or code debt, but can be also related to other technical endeavors) is a concept in software development that reflects the implied cost of additional rework caused by choosing an easy (limited) solution now instead of using a better approach that would take longer.[2]

As with monetary debt,[3] if technical debt is not repaid, it can accumulate 'interest', making it harder to implement changes. Unaddressed technical debt increases software entropy. Similarly to monetary debt, technical debt is not necessarily a bad thing, and sometimes (e.g., as a proof-of-concept) is required to move projects forward. On the other hand, some experts claim that the "technical debt" metaphor tends to minimize the impact, which results in insufficient prioritization of the necessary work to correct it.[4][5]

As a change is started on a codebase, there is often the need to make other coordinated changes in other parts of the codebase or documentation. Changes required that are not completed are considered debt, and until paid, will incur interest on top of interest, making it cumbersome to build a project. Although the term is used in software development primarily, it can also be applied to other professions.

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Technical debt is what happens when you choose the quick/easy route versus the correct approach in a software project. It almost always results in eventually having to significantly invest in reworking existing code to make further maintenance or extension possible.

I've seen systems where I've recommend redeveloping from scratch due to the technical debt. They could have rewritten the application more economically than maintaining it.

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Short the USD.

I think it will be a wild ride. Looking to commodities and metals, no coin.

A great investment I've had repeatedly over the years are pipeline companies. Great dividend, and more stable than drillers and refiners. I have found it a good place to park money for a while when I don't have a specific investing goal. Currently in MMP.

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If any of you read for pleasure you may find the book The Mandibles an enjoyable read.  It's fiction that opens in 2029 with an economic meltdown based on the USD being devalued by China and Russia.  I thought it was a great read with a lot of parallels to what we see unfolding with regard to national debt.

Edited by billyblazes
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23 hours ago, QuackerSmacker said:

Mostly.  Being kinda greedy right now.  That's probably not extremely smart.

If you hit a good number, be happy with your gains, you have to get off the ferris wheel at some point.

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I was about 3 months “late” to the game with TSLA...once I realized Tesla was legit and the mainstream finance guys hadn’t caught on yet, I had a limited time to get all the shares I could, which wasn’t much given the stock price and my income but I managed to get 7 shares before the split announcement. The first share I bought was $814 pre split. And that stung. $814 would go a longer way with a cheaper stock right? But I held to my convictions and the future outlook of this company. Fast forward to today, I’ve continued to add to my shares as I can. Just incredible to see my first share was $814 pre split and now after the split the shares are above what I paid pre split.  Tesla is NOT a car company it’s a technology company and now the mainstream is catching on. Is it overvalued? Heck yes!! But so was amazon from day 1. Tesla is not for the value investing crowd, it’s stock price has and will continue to be traded off of the future potential of the company.  I’m hoping for another split in 2021-2022! 
 

I’ve also killed it in WKHS, first 100 shares I bought at $2.48. 
 

I see a lot of growth coming in the EV Space. 
 

Who knows what will happen in the coming years, but as evidenced by history, the market always comes back and usually faster than anyone could imagine.  I’d guess a conservative investment strategy would be to have something like a total market index or S&P index. Throw in a few growth stocks and also keep some cash reserves to take advantage of any dips/crashes. 
 

in my opinion, there will always be good stocks to buy regardless of who’s president and any policies signed into law. I believe companies will adapt.  May be harder to find now than they were over the last few years, but they will be out there.  Also make sure you are taking advantage of tax advantages retirement accounts... 401k, ROTH 401k, ROTH IRA’s etc 
 

Also, Bitcoin has my attention. I understand the risks and I’ll never “invest” what I’m not willing to lose. I do think it has some advantages to it and I’d treat this as a hedge in my portfolio. Not trying to strike it rich by any means with it.  I also would not be laundering money or trying to shield any gains from the government. 
 

Edited by Slappy
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1 hour ago, Slappy said:

I was about 3 months “late” to the game with TSLA...

This is one of the ways an index fund can cover you.  Since it's tracking the total market, or replicating the S&P 500, you'll get in on companies like $TSLA and rise with them...just not in get rich quick proportion that carries the same if not more risk the other way.

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18 minutes ago, btq96r said:

This is one of the ways an index fund can cover you.  Since it's tracking the total market, or replicating the S&P 500, you'll get in on companies like $TSLA and rise with them...just not in get rich quick proportion that carries the same if not more risk the other way.

Yeah I get that for sure. But I’m at 160% return on Tesla right now. And Tesla wasn’t added to the S&P here until recently. But ARK had ETF’s that had it.  I had ARKK for a bit but sold it to put more directly into TSLA. While a great ETF, I’m glad I made that move. 

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