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Anyone doing anything for the inflation that is coming?


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On 7/22/2021 at 12:30 PM, 45guy said:

Inflation last month was 5.4 % up.  that means if you make 75 k a year you took a pay cut of over 4k.  I think it will get worse as we keep righting off student loans and printing money.  Not sure what the effect will be other that higher prices and lower buying power.  

Most of the drivers in that inflation was year over year increases for things that were at a virtual standstill this time last year (airfare, rental cars, hotels, ect) because of COVID.  Used cars are spiking because new cars are in delays for the semiconductor crunch, and appliances are stuck in a global shipping backlog.  All these things lead to inflation for their specific areas, but they aren't pushing overall inflation up in a way that a rising tide lifts all boats, just causing some funky numbers.

The math on the pay cut you reference does not hold up.  Inflation and the CPI are two different things, and both are imperfect for a whole lot of reasons.

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53 minutes ago, btq96r said:

Most of the drivers in that inflation was year over year increases for things that were at a virtual standstill this time last year (airfare, rental cars, hotels, ect) because of COVID.  Used cars are spiking because new cars are in delays for the semiconductor crunch, and appliances are stuck in a global shipping backlog.  All these things lead to inflation for their specific areas, but they aren't pushing overall inflation up in a way that a rising tide lifts all boats, just causing some funky numbers.

The math on the pay cut you reference does not hold up.  Inflation and the CPI are two different things, and both are imperfect for a whole lot of reasons.

So are you saying we should just ignore the inflation numbers. 

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11 minutes ago, 45guy said:

So are you saying we should just ignore the inflation numbers. 

I'm saying put them into perspective and realize we don't have a problem to unduly stress over.  Between government stimulus making it rain on individuals/banks/business, all those sectors of the economy starting to rev up again after shutdowns, a labor force with a lot of transition, and supply chains that are to inflexible to adapt easily, inflation is the symptom and not the disease for the moment.  COVID is going to take probably the rest of this year and a good bit of the next to get over in the real economy where people have to make things and provide services.

Edited by btq96r
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6 minutes ago, btq96r said:

I'm saying put them into perspective and realize we don't have a problem to unduly stress over.  Between government stimulus making it rain on individuals/banks/business, all those sectors of the economy starting to rev up again after shutdowns, a labor force with a lot of transition, and supply chains that are to inflexible to adapt easily, inflation is the symptom and not the disease for the moment.  COVID is going to take probably the rest of this year and a good bit of the next to get over in the real economy where people have to make things and provide services.

Good, was not stressed before not stressed now.  I tend to go with small adjustments anyway.  

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21 hours ago, Eray said:

Try buying a new truck. I went to my local Ford dealer last week. I was informed that they were selling all new vehicles at MSRP and there was no negotiating the price. 

 

They have them stockpiled waiting for chips. Keep your powder dry, I see a huge new car buying opportunity before long. I'm sort of needing one as well, but plan to wait a while.

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On 7/23/2021 at 3:46 PM, btq96r said:

Most of the drivers in that inflation was year over year increases for things that were at a virtual standstill this time last year (airfare, rental cars, hotels, ect) because of COVID.  Used cars are spiking because new cars are in delays for the semiconductor crunch, and appliances are stuck in a global shipping backlog.  All these things lead to inflation for their specific areas, but they aren't pushing overall inflation up in a way that a rising tide lifts all boats, just causing some funky numbers.

The math on the pay cut you reference does not hold up.  Inflation and the CPI are two different things, and both are imperfect for a whole lot of reasons.

How about food, fuel, and building materials? These things are a lot more important to the average Joe like me than travel accessories. They are all ip sharply.

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Do prices go up, or does the dollar go down?   

It really doesn't matter.  If you see inflation coming, buy commodities.  These concepts are way more simple than people understand.  If you buy silver, for example, and silver doubles, did you make any real money?  That depends on only one real variable. If the dollar did anything less than get cut in half, you lost money relative to that metric.  Just because you got more dollars does not mean you got more money!  But hedge yourself across a number of possibilities so that when/if the dollar dwindles/collapses you have way more dollars to show for it.  Way more cheaper dollars is worth a lot more than way less cheaper dollars.

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We got real financial problems coming to us all soon, not just inflation. It is funny how the gullible are believing the ‘transitory’ bs. I can’t believe they even tried to sell that to the people. 
 

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17 minutes ago, partypilot1 said:

We got real financial problems coming to us all soon, not just inflation. It is funny how the gullible are believing the ‘transitory’ bs. I can’t believe they even tried to sell that to the people. 
 

I fear you may be correct.

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On 7/25/2021 at 5:35 PM, gregintenn said:

How about food, fuel, and building materials? These things are a lot more important to the average Joe like me than travel accessories. They are all ip sharply.

Yes, but we've got reasons that are COVID explainable, not signs of the economy being in a bad place absent that factor.  We can't just go through what we did from March 2020 -Present and not have lingering effects for a bit.

Meat processing still isn't back to where it was before the pandemic started, and neither is the supply chain from slaughterhouse to supermarket.  Not ideal, but this wasn't going to be fixed when the masks came off.

Fuel is one that's always in flux, but OPEC cut production when COVID curbed the use of planes and cars, and they've kept that production low as travel return to try and recoup profits.  At best, they're going to slow roll the production increases people are asking for.    Cartel's are gonna cartel, unfortunately.

Building materials are probably the one to keep an eye out for (to me, anyway), but it ties into a bigger danger.  COVID has hedge funds realizing they need even more diversification in the event of bad times.  So, they're buying real estate and have no issues creating a permanent renter class along the way.  If those don't come down before too long, private capital is going to keep buying homes at a pace I think isn't healthy for society in general.  They've taken to overpaying up front knowing they can amortize and deprecate any costs along the way as they generate cash flow from day 1 in what I hope is not a new front for the sake of the middle class.  All that leads to building prices increasing along the way.

I'm not saying we're in a particularly good spot, just not seeing a bad one yet if bumps smooth out over the next year.

Edited by btq96r
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52 minutes ago, btq96r said:

Yes, but we've got reasons that are COVID explainable, not signs of the economy being in a bad place absent that factor.  We can't just go through what we did from March 2020 -Present and not have lingering effects for a bit.

Meat processing still isn't back to where it was before the pandemic started, and neither is the supply chain from slaughterhouse to supermarket.  Not ideal, but this wasn't going to be fixed when the masks came off.

Fuel is one that's always in flux, but OPEC cut production when COVID curbed the use of planes and cars, and they've kept that production low as travel return to try and recoup profits.  At best, they're going to slow roll the production increases people are asking for.    Cartel's are gonna cartel, unfortunately.

Building materials are probably the one to keep an eye out for (to me, anyway), but it ties into a bigger danger.  COVID has hedge funds realizing they need even more diversification in the event of bad times.  So, they're buying real estate and have no issues creating a permanent renter class along the way.  If those don't come down before too long, private capital is going to keep buying homes at a pace I think isn't healthy for society in general.  They've taken to overpaying up front knowing they can amortize and deprecate any costs along the way as they generate cash flow from day 1 in what I hope is not a new front for the sake of the middle class.  All that leads to building prices increasing along the way.

I'm not saying we're in a particularly good spot, just not seeing a bad one yet if bumps smooth out over the next year.

I do admire your optimism sir!

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1 hour ago, 45guy said:

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2021/09/13/inflation-expectations-hit-all-time-high-in-n-y-fed-survey/

Maybe this one is better.  But this is just about expectations. 

 

 

There was plenty of substance in your first post even though they were twitter quotes. They were spot on & there were no mean tweets...😉

Escalating prices in beef, pork & poultry are significant unless you're a vegetarian.

Rent, medical, care, gasoline, costs for new homes going up, up,up.

Gas is over $1.00 a gallon from 8 months ago, I bet that alone costs the average family $100.00 extra per month.

Things are gonna get rough for some.

 

 

 

Edited by AuEagle
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Yes, I'm doing my part to beat inflation.

I've already saved $230 this month (with taxes, more like $250)

I bought a guitar earlier this month and a week later the prices were $100 higher.  I then focused on a new amp and after I bought one, the model went up by $130.

Next, I will start stockpiling strings in various gauges - lol!

 

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