.22 shortage, according to Win. rep

[TNSean]

The whole situation is absolutely ridiculous. 

 

If the manufactures will not expand 22lr production, there is no end in sight. 

 

Demand and ownership of 22lr ammo and firearms is only going to keep growing. 

Edited February 17, 2014 by TNSean

[urdubob]

We have switched to 22 Revolvers and Mosin Nagant ammo I bought 20 years ago when it was 80.00 dollars a case...the kids still get to shoot once or twice a month..50-100 rounds of 22 then. 20- 40 rounds of 7.62x54. we stopped shooting the 10/22s and the Ruger government model. Mo more spray and Pray.

[221 Fireball]

I'm surprized that newer, smaller companies have not sprung up over all this. I mean, if I was a business entrepreneur with a few million dollars wanting to start a lucrative business, I'd open a rimfire plant and start production rolling. So many businesses try to create a need and then manufacture. Here, the need is already there, just ripe for the picking!

 

I do believe eventually hoarders will grow tired of spending lots of money stacking bricks, and slowly, the 'normal' shooting folks will catch up to what they consider a reasonable stash. Then once again, Wally World should have it sitting on the shelves anytime of day or night.

 

Does anyone remember the antifreeze shortage back in the 80s? One ethylene glycol plant burned, a few more closed shop, and boom, shortage. People started snatching up all the $5 a gallon jugs off the shelves in record time and then it was $30 a gallon before you knew it. I remember it well because right when it happened, I had to take my truck in for a leaking heater core and the damn two gallons of antifreeze the dealer charged me for was more than the core itself!

 

We as consumers are sometimes our own worst enemies. :pleased:

[Luke E.]

We as consumers are sometimes our own worst enemies. :pleased:

 

 

 Isn't that the truth!

[jonnnyboy]

 

We as consumers are sometimes our own worst enemies. :pleased:

X2 on this!  My decision is to not buy at scalper's prices.  When it comes back to reasonable, I'll be waiting.

[Guest lilfishbigpond]

Hopefully a sign that resellers aren't snapping everything up, but I found some 22lr ammo at the Memphis Walmart on Winchester at lunch time today. I bought what I thought I needed and left some for the next guy. Several weeks ago I was told by an employee at this Walmart that there was a line every morning at 7am with people waiting to buy any 22 ammo which had come in the night before. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using Tapatalk

[Oh Shoot]

...Demand and ownership of 22lr ammo and firearms is only going to keep growing. 

 

Now it's not just demand for actual shooting but mindset. In the past most folks that shot .22 a few times a year, even monthly or so, just kept a brick or less of ammo around, as could buy it whenever they needed it on short notice.

 

Now with "once bit twice shy" mentality,  everybody sees the need to stash a case or more, so you're looking at tenfold increase in demand or more, just due to that. Vicious cycle.

 

- OS

Edited February 18, 2014 by Oh Shoot

[estwing]

I switched from 22 to 50 bmg. Ammo is very abundant.

[No_0ne]

I'm surprized that newer, smaller companies have not sprung up over all this. I mean, if I was a business entrepreneur with a few million dollars wanting to start a lucrative business, I'd open a rimfire plant and start production rolling. So many businesses try to create a need and then manufacture. Here, the need is already there, just ripe for the picking!

 

I do believe eventually hoarders will grow tired of spending lots of money stacking bricks, and slowly, the 'normal' shooting folks will catch up to what they consider a reasonable stash. Then once again, Wally World should have it sitting on the shelves anytime of day or night.

 

Does anyone remember the antifreeze shortage back in the 80s? One ethylene glycol plant burned, a few more closed shop, and boom, shortage. People started snatching up all the $5 a gallon jugs off the shelves in record time and then it was $30 a gallon before you knew it. I remember it well because right when it happened, I had to take my truck in for a leaking heater core and the damn two gallons of antifreeze the dealer charged me for was more than the core itself!

 

We as consumers are sometimes our own worst enemies. :pleased:

Your second paragraph is a fine rebuttal to your first, and the antifreeze example is another argument against a company getting into the rimfire ammo business.  The math isn't hard to do, most companies have legions of accountants who do these calculations everyday.  The return on investment and return on capital expenditures must show not only a potential for sufficient profit, but also a stable environment in which to do future business.

 

Suppose you, as an businessman, decided to drop however many millions it takes to set up a new rimfire manufacturing plant.  The cost is enormous, as rimfire ammo is not made on individual loading machinery, but is a multifaceted process that takes many machines, and is labor intensive.  Any new plant will run a deficit for the first few months or even years, as workers are trained, lines are set up and tested, etc.  So now, here you are, say 5 years in the future, with your new, small rimfire plant in which you have invested several million dollars, and yet you are predicting that demand, supply, and pricing will all return to "normal" by that time.  Where is the profit potential?  This is a formula for bankruptcy, if you aren't very careful, and as you know, people who have excess cash on hand aren't the type who go into new businesses without knowing that the profit potential is assured, stable, and likely to grow in the future.  A 2 year artificially created "shortage" of rimfire ammo supplies doesn't fit the scenario for building great wealth or a successful business.  In addition, rimfire production is known to be a low margin, high volume, risky and difficult product to produce.  The current manufacturers have survived mainly because the plants are old, and paid for, workers are in place and lines run relatively smoothly.  Still I've heard more than one industry rep decry the low return on investment of rimfire production, and basically no company has been willing to expand their lines because of this.

 

From an economics standpoint, the best way for manufacturers to meet the current demand, with the production capability on hand, is to raise prices, probably quite drastically, until market forces equalize.  After that, if the new demand levels remain fairly high, then they will have generated enough excess profits to maybe consider increasing capacity to meet the new demands of their consumers.  If not, they have made a better profit than in the past, sold their products, and don't have new, costly, overproduction capacity to act as a drain on company finances.  My belief is that we will see a slow return of ammo on the shelves at big box retailers and local gunshops by the end of 2015, assuming no new "panic" incidents occur, accompanied by a gradual increase of the "normal" .22lr price to 8-10 cents per round.

Edited February 18, 2014 by No_0ne

[rugerla1]

I just saw .20/rd boxes of CCI mini mags sell in a couple of minutes on Facebook......!$$!%@ Craziness! Twenty cents per round! Still shaking my head!

[Guest lilfishbigpond]

[quote name="estwing" post="1112643" timestamp="1392678227"]I switched from 22 to 50 bmg. Ammo is very abundant.[/quote] Might be easy to find because the ammo costs $2.00+ a round :-P No thanks. I'll reload light 44mag or 9mm rounds and keep costs down if I give up on the 22lr.

[Oh Shoot]

Might be easy to find because the ammo costs $2.00+ a round :-P...

 

Not sure you can even handload it for that.

 

- OS

[Stegall Law Firm]

I agree about the pitfalls of opening a new rim fire manufacturing plant. It would take years to see any profit and this panic will be over by then. But you might catch the next one. Also agree that only higher prices will quell the demand. That's the only thing to do in this situation. People spew vitriol on cheaper than dirt and the resellers, then brag about having bought all the 22 ammo available when they saw it on the shelf. By doing so they're justifying the existence of the very companies/people they hate for raising prices.

Personally I'm just going to shoot less 22, maybe 100 rounds a month. At that rate I could go several years before my supply started to get too low for comfort. Hopefully before then it'll come down in price. But I'm also preparing myself mentally to pay higher prices. We'll see how this year goes.

[graycrait]

The thing which "amuses" me most is how otherwise sensible folk get bamboozled into fear buying reactions in response to Internet nonsense perpetuated by gougers and other private sellers in firearms, who use scare tactics sent in "bold 20 font" to sell ammo at "unreasonable prices. Things like, "the last smelter in US closing = no more ammo," or "Obama is going to take all your guns." Or, "DHS is buying all the .22LR to ensure that no kids get to shoot." or "The government is buying all the .22LR ammunition, buy mine for 3 times what I paid for it yesterday at Walmart."  Ok, I haven't seen the last one but that is the intent of them all.  It pains me to see gun guys "doing it" to gun guys.  I get the current surge in consumption due to various factors, but it does bother me that our own shooting sports brethren would perpetuate myths to profit on fear, and doubly pains me to see gullible folk figuratively and literally "buy" into it.  

Edited February 18, 2014 by graycrait

[DaveTN]

His other opinions of that conversation were...no government conspiracy, but plenty of 'civilian' rumor, enough to cause panic buying like they've never seen.

Of course it’s our fault. We repeatedly hit ourselves in the head and then look for someone to blame.

[Cruel Hand Luke]

I work in the industry in my day job. I hear all manner of conspiracy theory crap every day....everything from "The military is using .22s to practice, to homeland security has a new .22 machine gun (yes someone really said that) to the govt is buying it all and throwing it in the ocean.....

 

The truth is far more simple...it is simply a matter of demand outstripping the supply chain. More people probably own .22s (and shoot them) than anything else. You would think nothing of burning up a brick of .22s on a Sunday afternoon with the kids...but you probably wouldn't shoot 500 rounds of 30/30 in a lifetime. So you have a caliber that EVERY ONE owns and that people actually shoot a lot of and everyone is competing for the same resources at the same time. 

 

Using rough numbers we can say that there are 100 million gun owners in the US. Under normal times only about 20% of them actually  buy on a regular basis (20 million people).And they are normally not ALL buying at the same time.  But when within a 6 week time span (Nov 2012 to Jan 2013) you see Obama get reelected, a horrific school shooting, and the consequent push by dems to pass more gun control the percentage of active buyers multiplies exponentially. The 20% of regular buyers begin buying anywhere from 10 to 100 times what they would normally be trying to buy and 70 million of the other 80 million gun owners who don't normally buy much at all started buying in earnest too... So you have an industry that in normal times is essentially at full capacity in order to service 20 million people now essentially trying to service the equivalent of 300-400 + million people. There is NO WAY (even running 24/7) for them to catch up anytime soon ...at least as long as people KEEP BUYING.

 

Think in terms of a snow storm forecast...what does everyone do? Go buy milk and bread. If you go to the store late you won't find any milk or bread. Why? Because people who don't even drink milk or eat bread on a regular basis think they need to go buy it in case they get snowed in. It defies logic but it happens. But this time the forecast is for the biggest storm in history...and the forecast is the same EVERY DAY for 5 MONTHS. That is what happened in the ammo industry. If people stopped buying ammo for 6 months it MIGHT start getting back to normal. The 1st time Obama got elected it took almost 2 years to get back to "normal" again and this was FAR worse than then.....

Edited February 18, 2014 by Cruel Hand Luke

[dlm37015]

I switched from 22 to 50 bmg. Ammo is very abundant.

me too

[JAB]

I don't doubt that a lot of it is panic buying but I still put most of the blame on the Walmart Campers and other places that cater to these kind of people just as much.

 

The profiteers who descend on Walmart like a plague of locusts are taking advantage of - and no doubt spreading rumors to perpetuate - panic buying.  They clean out the Walmart shelves (and probably shelves at many sporting good stores.)  People see the empty shelves and panic, thinking they may never get any .22 again.  Then, when they see a stack of it in front of a scalper they think, "That's kind of expensive but maybe I should consider buying a box."  Then the profiteer gives the potential mark customer some BS line about how no stores are getting .22 ammo, companies are going to stop making .22 ammo and so on to the point that the already panicked buyer is now freaked out and more than willing to buy two or three $20 boxes of ammo for $60 or $70 apiece.  Then the con man independent entrepreneur, seeing how easy it is to make a huge profit as long as people don't see the stuff available on a Walmart shelf for 1/3 of his price sets out to keep the shelves at Walmart and other stores bare - thereby perpetuating the panic and being able to resell every box of .22 he can get his hands on by recruiting a herd of his friends/family to wait with him in Walmart at 5:30 in the morning to clear the ammo shelves as soon as they are stocked.  A vicious cycle.

[JAB]

Like I said, if .22lr ever becomes readily available again you'll see me on an episode of Hoarders. 

 

Damn skippy.  I saw the ammo shortage coming and, unlike many, had a feeling that .22 would be included this time so I put a little back before it got scarce/ridiculously priced.  Thing is, I expected .22 ammo - mostly bulk packs - to be scarce for a year or so.  I didn't expect it to all but completely disappear, even in 50 round boxes, for three or more years.  Therefore, I have enough .22 ammo on hand that I can shoot my .22 rifles and handguns a little from time to time but I certainly don't have enough to maintain the level of .22 shooting I was doing, before and will have to ration what I do have if it is really going to be two years before the industry catches up.

 

I have been hoping that things on the .22 ammo front might start turning around by this summer.  The Winchester rep's statement is disappointing but I am still holding some hope that we might see improvement - may not 'normal' but at least noticeable improvement - later this year.  One, big thing that gives me hope is that Remington has said that they are expanding their ammo factory in Arkansas to help keep up with the rising demand.  Yeah, I know that Remington bulk pack stuff isn't generally the best but having compared results on paper (by which I mean shooting paper targets) between the 'new, improved' golden bullets and some older ones, I think Remington really has made them better.  Besides, for plinking as long as the ammo is minute of plastic soft drink bottle I'll shoot it with a big grin on my face and save the 'better' ammo in case I need it for something else.

Edited February 18, 2014 by JAB

[ncldwell]

I for one never anticipated shelves to be completely barren of 22lr for so long.  With the millions of rounds being produced I just can't get my head around where it is all going...

[No_0ne]

I for one never anticipated shelves to be completely barren of 22lr for so long.  With the millions of rounds being produced I just can't get my head around where it is all going...

Don't feel alone, almost everyone has a hard time visualizing very large numbers of anything.  Our brains simply can't comprehend a billion, we have no practical experience or visual references to go by.  When we hear that 1.5 billion rounds of 22 are produced each year, the average person thinks something along the lines of "1500000000 rounds!  We ought to be drowning in 22!" The number of estimated gunowners in the United States is usually quoted at 100 million.  If you divide the total yearly 22 production by the estimated number of gunowners, it comes out to 15 rounds per owner per YEAR.  Therefore, when you blow through a brick on Saturday afternoon, you just used up 33 years of your allotment in one range trip.  I'm continually amazed that there was ever any 22 available to purchase.

 

The resellers aren't creating the situation, nor are they exacerbating it, regardless of our feelings about the practice.  The level of demand is real, the resellers are simply taking advantage of the fact that 22 ammo is priced ridiculously cheaper than it should be, considering the demand levels and shortages.  Raise the prices to what market conditions will bear (and that's obviously what the resellers are charging, as their product is still moving) and the demand will eventually lessen.

 

Finally, consider the new shooters that everyone agrees are now in the market.  They have no prior experience to draw on, the prices they see are the ones that are "normal".  Per round, other ammo is still mostly more expensive than 22.  If a new shooter sees a box of .45 on the shelf for $25, then sees a brick of 22 at a gunshow for $75, all he has to compare is that the .45 costs him 50 cents per round, while the 22 is "only" 15 cents per round.  For him, that's a no brainer ...

[wjh2657]

I have packed all 8 of my .22 rifles and all 5 of my .22 pistols up and secured them in my gun safe. Next month I am ordering a RWS 34 air rifle for the grandkids to shoot when they come to visit. I haven't seen a box of .22 ammo in two years now at LGD, Wally World, Cabellas or even on online. (I have ordered online and  I am still backordered at 3 retailers from a year ago!) I refuse to pay as much for  .22 as I do for large caliber! As far as I am concerned the .22 is now an obsolete and soon to be forgotten cartridge. I have talked to many of my shooting friends and many feel the same. The air rifle is replacing the .22s in our area. As far as new people buying .22s, where in the SH are they getting ammo? If they are paying gun show prices, they are d**n fools.

Edited February 19, 2014 by wjh2657

[JAB]

Don't feel alone, almost everyone has a hard time visualizing very large numbers of anything.  Our brains simply can't comprehend a billion, we have no practical experience or visual references to go by.  When we hear that 1.5 billion rounds of 22 are produced each year, the average person thinks something along the lines of "1500000000 rounds!  We ought to be drowning in 22!" The number of estimated gunowners in the United States is usually quoted at 100 million.  If you divide the total yearly 22 production by the estimated number of gunowners, it comes out to 15 rounds per owner per YEAR.  Therefore, when you blow through a brick on Saturday afternoon, you just used up 33 years of your allotment in one range trip.  I'm continually amazed that there was ever any 22 available to purchase.

 

The resellers aren't creating the situation, nor are they exacerbating it, regardless of our feelings about the practice.  The level of demand is real, the resellers are simply taking advantage of the fact that 22 ammo is priced ridiculously cheaper than it should be, considering the demand levels and shortages.  Raise the prices to what market conditions will bear (and that's obviously what the resellers are charging, as their product is still moving) and the demand will eventually lessen.

 

Finally, consider the new shooters that everyone agrees are now in the market.  They have no prior experience to draw on, the prices they see are the ones that are "normal".  Per round, other ammo is still mostly more expensive than 22.  If a new shooter sees a box of .45 on the shelf for $25, then sees a brick of 22 at a gunshow for $75, all he has to compare is that the .45 costs him 50 cents per round, while the 22 is "only" 15 cents per round.  For him, that's a no brainer ...

 

I agree with all of your points except about the profiteers.  When they cook up, perpetuate and (likely knowingly) spread false rumors and outright lies about the ammo situation just to try and goad a mark into paying 3X normal retail for a box of .22 ammo they are contributing to the panic and prolonging the shortage.  I haven't been to a gun show in several months but the last couple I went to I was already hearing the fairy tales coming from ammo 'dealers' with Walmart ammo stacked up in front of them.  In a few cases, I had to almost bite my tongue to stop myself from telling their mark that the dealer was spewing BS.  For that matter, there were a couple of times I didn't stop myself.

[graycrait]

Next month I am ordering a RWS 34 air rifle for the grandkids to shoot when they come to visit.

 

Now there is a sensible move.  I have been looking at air rifles myself.  Just can't figure out which one.  Maybe selling a .22LR firearm or two and using that money on an airgun is money better spent than on .22LR ammo or the wait and see game.  Got to decide: PCP, spring break, nitro piston, etc...

[crossfire]

I work in the industry in my day job. I hear all manner of conspiracy theory crap every day....everything from "The military is using .22s to practice, to homeland security has a new .22 machine gun (yes someone really said that) to the govt is buying it all and throwing it in the ocean.....

 

The truth is far more simple...it is simply a matter of demand outstripping the supply chain. More people probably own .22s (and shoot them) than anything else. You would think nothing of burning up a brick of .22s on a Sunday afternoon with the kids...but you probably wouldn't shoot 500 rounds of 30/30 in a lifetime. So you have a caliber that EVERY ONE owns and that people actually shoot a lot of and everyone is competing for the same resources at the same time. 

 

Using rough numbers we can say that there are 100 million gun owners in the US. Under normal times only about 20% of them actually  buy on a regular basis (20 million people).And they are normally not ALL buying at the same time.  But when within a 6 week time span (Nov 2012 to Jan 2013) you see Obama get reelected, a horrific school shooting, and the consequent push by dems to pass more gun control the percentage of active buyers multiplies exponentially. The 20% of regular buyers begin buying anywhere from 10 to 100 times what they would normally be trying to buy and 70 million of the other 80 million gun owners who don't normally buy much at all started buying in earnest too... So you have an industry that in normal times is essentially at full capacity in order to service 20 million people now essentially trying to service the equivalent of 300-400 + million people. There is NO WAY (even running 24/7) for them to catch up anytime soon ...at least as long as people KEEP BUYING.

 

Think in terms of a snow storm forecast...what does everyone do? Go buy milk and bread. If you go to the store late you won't find any milk or bread. Why? Because people who don't even drink milk or eat bread on a regular basis think they need to go buy it in case they get snowed in. It defies logic but it happens. But this time the forecast is for the biggest storm in history...and the forecast is the same EVERY DAY for 5 MONTHS. That is what happened in the ammo industry. If people stopped buying ammo for 6 months it MIGHT start getting back to normal. The 1st time Obama got elected it took almost 2 years to get back to "normal" again and this was FAR worse than then.....

You Sir, make way to much sense to be posting here.