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I'm ringing the SHTF bell


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My thoughts(worth at least twice what you are paying for them):
I have watched a couple episodes of that "Doomsday Preppers" show and what bugs me is people think they know the exact disaster that is going to happen. The scenario laid out in this thread is entirely possible, but so is a natural disaster, so is some sort of illness/epidemic. Preparing is important. I put zero energy into trying to predict the future.
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The big fail in your plan is an economic collapse, and you're stockpiling cash.  Do you actually think your cash will be worth it's current value after a crash?  If things are that bad economically, then your "cash" will not be money.

 

Yep. Currency becomes guns, ammo, food, etc. Luxury items like liquor, coffee, etc.

 

Both of you are exactly correct and I see that I was inarticulate in what I was trying to say - so let me restate.

I am doing all I can do in the very short run (3-6 months) to earn extra $ and also not spending on unnecessary things in order that I can have ready cash to be used in the early stages of the downturn to acquire things people are liqidating to raise cash as well as things put on sale by vendors for the same reason or to take advantage of afformentioned falling commodity prices. In a few weeks, I will be adding another 300 gallons of diesel to what i aleady have.

 

Even if this downturn is the same as a normal recession or a bit more like in 2008, there will be bargains to be had. Back then I picked up lots of things people were unloading. Case in point, in 2009 I picked up a 2006 Chevy 2500SD crew cab for $15,000 off an Ebay auction - I was the only bidder. Guy owed the bank 21k, KBB trade in was $17,500. His business was cratering and he needed out from under the payment. I paid cash because I had it.

 

Then I picked up a new truck bed tank with electric pump off Craigslist that TSC sells for $1,299 and I paid $100.

Now 2008 will happen again. It's part of a cyclical economy. Maybe I'm just too dense to understand, but we all survived it just fine.

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Now 2008 will happen again. It's part of a cyclical economy. Maybe I'm just too dense to understand, but we all survived it just fine.


No kidding. If the stock market sagging a bit over the course of a week or so is a sign of the apocalypse, we should all be pretty good at dealing with that sort of calamity by now.
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While eating my cereal at 6am this morning (3 hours before the market even opens), the headline read something to the effect of "investors brace for market plunge... DOW expected to fall 300 points."  

 

:panic:

 

 

 

300 points is less than 2%.  Would most people even notice if the cost of a gallon of milk dropped $0.06?   And this after it's gone up about 80% in the last 5 years.   :drama:      Self-fulfilling prophesy?

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Stock market is a lagging indicator IMHO.

The underlying economic activity has been flashing warnings for a while.

 

As I pointed out in the original post, feed stock commodity prices for base raw materials have been falling world wide because demand for things like steel are falling.

 

Other indices that are probably more leading indicators than the stock markets are the Baltic Dry Index which shows the price to rent shipping capacity http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index which measures the same in the far east. http://www1.chineseshipping.com.cn/en/indices/scfinew.jsp Just look at what has happended there in the last week.

 

Finally, rail shipping volumes in the US are indicative of a growing or shrinking economy. This is from the Association of American Railroads released August 5, 2015, These are my excerpts you can read the whole press release @

https://www.aar.org/newsandevents/Press-Releases/Pages/2015-08-05-railtraffic.aspx

 

Commodities that saw declines in July 2015 from July 2014 included: coal, down 12.5 percent or 69,519 carloads, petroleum and petroleum products, down 13.6 percent or 10,691 carloads; and primary metal products, down 13 percent or 7,167 carloads.

Excluding coal, carloads were down 2.8 percent or 25,776 carloads in July 2015 from July 2014.

 

For July 2015, combined U.S. carload and intermodal originations were 2,708,299, down 1.8 percent or 49,757 carloads and intermodal units from July 2014.

 

Total U.S. weekly rail traffic for the week ending August 1, 2015 was 559,125 carloads and intermodal units, down 2.7 percent compared with the same week last year.  For the week there were 289,657 carloads, down 4.8 percent compared with the same week in 2014, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 269,468 containers and trailers, down 0.3 percent compared to 2014.

 

North American rail volume for the week ending August 1, 2015 on 13 reporting U.S., Canadian and Mexican railroads totaled 383,764 carloads, down 4.7 percent compared with the same week last year,

 

Mexican railroads reported 17,276 carloads for the week, down 0.6 percent compared with the same week last year, and 10,893 intermodal units, down 6.9 percent.

 

Canadian railroads reported 76,831 carloads for the week, down 5.2 percent, and 60,582 intermodal units, down 0.1 percent compared with the same week in 2014."

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Here is my super secret squirrel method for buying and selling stocks. It helps if you live near Chattanooga.

 

Once a week drive up I-24 and go past the Covenant Trucking dispatch yard. If there are a bunch of trucks sitting there sell. If the lot is empty buy. The trucks always park before a turn down gets noticed and they are among the first to get going when things are ready to pick back up.

 

It has worked better than any other tool I've found.

 

Mark

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  • 4 weeks later...

I agree with the initial post, I believe the New-World government will come from a world-economic crises.   

I also hold an AW-millennial view.  I've been wondering what to do for cash-flow when I can't buy, sell, nor trade. 

 

I wonder if Eros would be more secure than the dollar today, would this be a good time to convert currency?

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http://i1276.photobucket.com/albums/y467/ehull2000/GreekCrisisATMLineLarissaCity_zpsuwd9oytp.jpg

 

Cash was extremely important during the economic crisis in Greece.  Standing in the line shown in the link above to use the ATM was very dangerous not to mention inconvenient.  If you need to do other things with that time like take care of a child it was also extremely counterproductive.  Keeping some cash on hand at all times is extremely important.    

 

https://www.ffiec.gov/katrina_lessons.htm

 

From the above link 

 

How can we overcome difficulties in processing transactions electronically? 

The widespread power and telecommunications outages after Hurricane Katrina hindered electronic transaction processing. Most institutions had multiple types of back-up and timely back up of data, which assisted in recovery of applications and business resumption. In some cases, however, manual processing was required. While this may be a short-term solution, connectivity with the data processing facility is critical in order to restore and sustain routine financial services. If telecommunications cannot be recovered, transaction items must be physically transported to other processing sites. 

Lesson Learned - Be prepared to operate in a "cash only" environment. 

 

Why would we need more cash? 

 

Power and telecommunications outages can disrupt all electronic forms of payments, such as debit and credit card payments. Customers and employees remaining in, or evacuating from, affected areas may need unexpectedly large amounts of cash to pay for critical goods and services. In anticipation of hurricanes or other disasters with advance warning, some financial institutions developed plans for ordering larger shipments of cash prior to the expected onset. These institutions also reported the need to plan for enhanced security precautions.

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  • 4 weeks later...

I don't post here very often, but here goes and remember this is just my opinion.

 

Many of us preppers have been saying for some time that the most likely SHTF scenario is not an EMP or Carrington Event or Yellowstone super eruption, it is economic collapse and that rather than a single event or point in time, the SHTF will sneak up on us like a thief in the night - or to use another analogy we are like frogs being slowly boiled and not noticing. That there will be no announcement, no balloon going up, no trip wire that is easily recognized to say yesterday we were ok, but now SHTF is on.
.

 

I don't disagree on much of what you are saying and in a few years we might find out you are right but if this is the final crash it will take at least a year or two and I doubt we are going to see a full blown mad max environment instead we are more likely to see the Great Depression 2 but with a much higher body count.  Reason the body count will be higher is because 1) Most people have a very shallow pantry 2) A huge percentage of people are dependent on the Government, 3) People no longer have hard skills like growing food, repairing stuff, etc.

 

Thanks

Robert

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