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The Harsh Truth About Bugging Out of Cities


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Boy talk about wishful thinking.  There are many gun toting, survival minded tactically trained individuals in large cities.  There is a high likelihood that among that 'horde' will be combat vets that have fought up in the mountains of Afghanistan against some very rural communities.  If a large group leaving the city encounters other groups of gang members and such as mentioned in the article, then the group that eventually ends up in rural areas will be battle hardened and not the soft bellied individuals the writer suggests.  No, the most likely way for rural inhabitants to survive is to come together into large groups and create defense perimeters that can be defended costing attackers too much time, energy and most of all casualties to take.

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Boy talk about wishful thinking.  There are many gun toting, survival minded tactically trained individuals in large cities.  There is a high likelihood that among that 'horde' will be combat vets that have fought up in the mountains of Afghanistan against some very rural communities.  If a large group leaving the city encounters other groups of gang members and such as mentioned in the article, then the group that eventually ends up in rural areas will be battle hardened and not the soft bellied individuals the writer suggests.  No, the most likely way for rural inhabitants to survive is to come together into large groups and create defense perimeters that can be defended costing attackers too much time, energy and most of all casualties to take

I agree the author greatly underestimated the horde of folks coming from the cities...thought that same thing. Of course there are a lot of folks walking around who have been in the shit and some live in more "rural " areas. But I did think the article was right about sheer numbers of folks who are not trained, not armed and not prepared. and it was right on about trying to escape a city in chaos. It might be that those folks who have training will be the ones taking over key infrastructure in the cities. Assuming they are organized already i.e. VFW posts, american legion etc. thats exactly what I would do. Why hump a hundred miles fighting as I go when I can stay put with, shelter, etc. A group of trained fighters would occupy apartment buildings, and charge civilians for their protection against crazies. I think that's a far more likely scenario. someone always fills a power vacuum.

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It amazes me how most people think short-term and not far enough ahead to consider the real issue of available land vs. population.  Tennessee has an area of 42,181 square miles.  That's all the land, not just land used for agriculture.  A little less than 1/2 the state (11.8 million acres) is farmland.  Another 14 million acres are forests.

 

Our estimated population in 2014 was 6.549 million people.  Do the math.  If the people are spread evenly across ALL the land in the state each of us  would get a square about 425 ft. on a side where we could live and try to survive.  If you're lucky your "football field and a half" can be farmed.  If not, you might be trying to find a way to eat while hanging on the side of Mt. LeConte.  Hunting for meat - forget it.  My squirrels and bunnies are pretty "productive" but not that good!  Plus, I've got 8 neighbors around me that want meat too. 

 

Put the people on the land being used for agriculture today and your "share" shrinks to a square about 280 ft. per side.  In either case it's probably more land than you can cultivate without power equipment and draft animals will be virtually non-existent (How many people do you know that own a draft horse, mule or ox?). 

 

Yes, I am realistic; there won't be 6.5 million Tennesseans after a major SHTF event, but the idea is still the same. 

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I often wonder if the SHTF event will actually be an event like Katrina, EMP etc. . I think it will be more like the Great Depression, an economic one. I read about the fall of the Soviet Union and there weren't large numbers of deaths and the army took over. People who lived in large cities were most affected.

Edited by polecat
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I often wonder if the SHTF event will actually be an event like Katrina, EMP etc. . I think it will be more like the Great Depression, an economic one. I read about the fall of the Soviet Union and there weren't large numbers of deaths and the army took over. People who lived in large cities were most affected.

 

That may be a SHTF event for the impacted people, but it's not an EOTWAWKI event. As long as it's localized geographically (e.g. Katrina) or doesn't hit everyone and not all at once (e.g. the Great Depression), then it's something that can be managed. Tough, sure, but recoverable. Refineries still pump diesel and gasoline, tractors still plow fields, and food still gets produced and transported in the large-scale corporate farm method that we rely on to feed this many people. I really do think that a real EOTWAWKI event would take a widespread failure of the grid. Worst case would be an EMP that takes down the grid and non-grid electrical systems like solar panels, generators, battery-powered comms, and most vehicles on the road today.

Edited by monkeylizard
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Electricity is over rated.  If all that was effected was electrical , it would suck for sure, but unless it was followed up with an invasion I think it would be recoverable within short order.  First of all, not every electrical item would be effected, there are many electronics that are shielded against such things. Many of those are generators, and since we have the knowledge, we can get things repaired quite quickly.  No, a EOTWAWKI event would have to be a global event such as a meteor, massive tectonic plate movements, Super Volcano eruption or nuclear war or a mix of those things.  Along with such events are the massive loss of life, and depending on where such an event originates, there may be large metropolitan areas wiped out so hordes from there may be non existant.  Even accounting for the mad max scenarios, large like minded groups are the only way to survive such events; whether it be in a rural area or town/city will depend on what is left of those areas.

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EMP technology is not something that we are able to harness effectively - its usually observed post nuclear detonation.

As Omega pointed out most tech is shielded from EMP - Farady cages or similar enclosures, EDPDs and the like (lightning rods, grounded material) usually render these things ineffective.

Also employing a massive EMP weapon takes massive amounts of power - unless someone magically harnessed microfusion or some other scifi quantum mechanic I say we dont have much to worry about

Evil civil unrest and pandemics/epidemics are usually regionally isolated and non agile - the CDC/WHO and State Health Organizations do well to shutdown travel - the best thing to do is stay indoors.

My opinion that alot of this EOTW/SHTF situations can be mitigated greatly my preventative measures - basic first aid and trauma mangement training, marksmanship, fieldcraft, starting fires, soft and hard stockpiles/caches, agriculture and hydroponics as well as social defense networking go a lot futher than wearing tin foil and buying weapons in crate loads.

Investing in your mind and body will help you survive not some hypothetical disaster with unproven metrics and unrealistic scenarios.

Sent from my SPH-L720 using Tapatalk
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I agree the author greatly underestimated the horde of folks coming from the cities...thought that same thing. Of course there are a lot of folks walking around who have been in the #### and some live in more "rural " areas. But I did think the article was right about sheer numbers of folks who are not trained, not armed and not prepared. and it was right on about trying to escape a city in chaos. It might be that those folks who have training will be the ones taking over key infrastructure in the cities. Assuming they are organized already i.e. VFW posts, american legion etc. thats exactly what I would do. Why hump a hundred miles fighting as I go when I can stay put with, shelter, etc. A group of trained fighters would occupy apartment buildings, and charge civilians for their protection against crazies. I think that's a far more likely scenario. someone always fills a power vacuum.

 

Great so you have a protected apartment building how do you feed the people in the building?  Unless they are growing Veges on the roof and even that you can only support so many people for so long.  The fact is New York City even with a few preppers inside the city doesn't have more then 3 weeks worth of food inside the city.  If food isn't brought in within a month everyone left in the city will be living off of each other.

 

Thanks

Robert

Edited by rmiddle
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Oh man... this is sure to go all over the place.....

 

 

First of all... stop worrying about the "vulnerable power grid". That's a total load of crap.

 

Are the systems in the power grid susceptible to "cyber attack"? Yes, of course, so is the forum. So is your smart phone.

 

I could write a manifesto on how this is total horse sh|t and the tin foil hat crowd would continue to beLIEve that it's imminent.  But.... basically.... it's not.

 

There isn't any plausible situation where a substantial area is offline for an extended period of time. WORST case scenario for power outage (excluding the way far out almost non-existent solar EMP stuff) is that a single city, say like Atlanta goes offline. Maybe a few cities? Doubtful. But, even then it won't be the whole city, and without substantial PHYSICAL damage to the infrastructure it won't be for extended periods of time. Everyone who's into this theory goes to Katrina.... which was caused by extended physical damage to infrastructure caused by a 100yr storm. Not going to happen nation wide... or even to any significant part of the country. Then these people eventually get around to the ill will of the Chinese or maybe it's the Russians!  Both of which mind you have NO INTEREST in collapsing this country... at least presently. When global markets are somewhat stable, everyone is happy. Turn this country into mad max, everyone on the planet will suffer. Nevermind the fact that they can't shut down "the power grid" (which by itself that phrase is an total over simplification!) via a virus or cyber attack. That theory is ridiculous F.U.D. Could they cause some minor outages, maybe.... for extended periods of time.... no.

 

 

So then back to the city folk vs country folk idiocy of that post..... Where do you even begin with this nonsense...

 

Let's just skip past the whole, ganbangers vs vets..... I mean it's been my experience that vets are folks that HELP people and don't go around marauding. Not to mention, how many of these guys and gals are actually battle hardened and seen real front lines kinda battle? Not that fighting in Afghanistan, Iraq, wherever is even close to the same as fighting other Americans that are just wanting to feed their kids same as you.....  No offense meant, just think that it's cavelier of these people to turn our vets in to marauding bandits at the first sign of the lights going out. Nonsense. Those are the folks that KEEP THAT SH|T FROM HAPPENING.

 

 

 

RANT SUMMARY

Those who survive will be the those that.....

 

AVOID CONFLICT -  There isn't going to be a helicopter to evacuate you to a hospital if you're injured in a gun fight with someone over their tomatoes.

BE RESOURCEFUL -  It's always been the most resourceful folks that have survived in any theatre of human struggle. War, depression, disaster....

 

It's not weak vs strong.

 

It's also NOT best shooter, taticool operator guy (who probably won't be able to carry all 400lbs of his gear and ammo and water and everything anyway) vs those who are unarmed, under-equipped.... Non-operators

 

It's who's using their head. Staying out of trouble, resourceful enough to know where to find food and shelter. Be that an abandoned bank building in the city or an old barn in the country.

 

And being a "country farmer" doesn't give you a leg up. Hell most of these folks are hobbyist farmers anyway, with delusions of cowboy life and John Wayne western justice... etc. What happens to your live stock and crops when the equipment goes down and there's no supplies left at the feed store?

Truth is that unless you're in the back country of Wyoming or some place REALLY remote, you ain't safe from my city slicker ass. My truck will go a couple hundred miles on a tank of gas.

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I have said, before, in another thread that the folks who live in cities and who have the plan to simply 'head for the country' will receive a rude awakening when they realize that there are already people living in said 'country'.  I have joked that when these folks reach the rural area I will be sitting on my front porch with a shotgun telling them to get the hell out of my yard.

 

That said, one problem I have with the response to the query in the article was that the guy responding laid out a scenario where these good, country 'God-fearing' people are just going to start killing strangers on sight.  Keep in mind that the country folk in the article have not had a chance to observe the city folk, determine their motives, figure out what kind of people they are or even be sure as to the age ranges in their group.  Sure the group that went to check out the source of the sound of diesel engines and gunfire went armed - wouldn't anyone with a lick of sense?  In his scenario, all those city folk had to do was show up at an (apparently) abandoned house and the response of the locals was to block their escape and start shooting them.  No warning, no chance to leave, nothing.  Now, if I know someone is threatening me and mine or if I think there is a good chance they will do so in a situation like that I'd be willing to shoot as many as necessary to defend myself and my home.  That said, for all the 'country' folk in that scenario knew these 'city' people weren't there with the intention of being a threat.  Maybe one of them thought Great Uncle Jeb lived around there somewhere and the group got lost trying to find ol' Jeb's place.  Maybe they saw the abandoned house and decided it was a good place to hole up for the night.  I have a hard time imagining the normal, good country folk described in the response suddenly turning into cold-blooded killers and massacring a group of strangers (for all they know there are children in those cars) without even talking to them, first.  Heck, for that matter maybe one of the group really is a nephew who moved to the city for work years ago, who really is part of their family and who - possibly with his wife and two kids - really is coming to rejoin his extended family and offer the assistance of himself and the others in his group, good people all, in tending the crops and defending the place.  It isn't like he could call ahead and let them know he is coming if there is a TEOTWAWKI type event and most long-range communication methods no longer work.  So the country folks just murdered their own kin in cold blood - which they won't realize until it is all over but the bleeding.

 

Of course, one problem is that if the group of city folks are planning to be a threat then the only way to safely deal with them in the described situation is to do something very similar to what was described in the response - box them in and kill them all before they have a chance to pose a real threat.  That makes the whole scenario kind of a Catch 22 situation - either good, honest, hard-working country folk take a chance on slaughtering a group of basically innocent refugees from the city or they take a chance on letting a group of marauders get into a position to pose a real threat.  Forethought and planning aside, when it came time to actually start putting bullets in heads that would be a much harder call to make than the author of the article makes it seem.

Edited by JAB
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I see many scenarios that all have the same bleak fight it out kill em all narrative, but could there be a more hopeful outcome. Is it possible more people would come together and survive in a more peaceful manner? Don't get me wrong there would be some real ugliness but for how long. Criminals would run amok but probably not for long being they are really a small percentage of the population and many would die fighting themselves. In the absence of normal civilization would people fall in line doing the tasks they have the ability and knowledge to do? Everyone won't be grabbing a gun and robbing anyone they see. I don't believe more than a few out of every hundred people is even capable of killing in cold blood regardless of the situation. It's not zombies, killing a man, woman, or child for a meal or two is not in our nature. I hope to God the situation never arises that our civilization should fall, but if it did I hope we as humans could better survive by working together and not just pillaging and killing to survive another day.
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I see many scenarios that all have the same bleak fight it out kill em all narrative, but could there be a more hopeful outcome. Is it possible more people would come together and survive in a more peaceful manner? Don't get me wrong there would be some real ugliness but for how long. Criminals would run amok but probably not for long being they are really a small percentage of the population and many would die fighting themselves. In the absence of normal civilization would people fall in line doing the tasks they have the ability and knowledge to do? Everyone won't be grabbing a gun and robbing anyone they see. I don't believe more than a few out of every hundred people is even capable of killing in cold blood regardless of the situation. It's not zombies, killing a man, woman, or child for a meal or two is not in our nature. I hope to God the situation never arises that our civilization should fall, but if it did I hope we as humans could better survive by working together and not just pillaging and killing to survive another day.

I take it you have never been to the South Side of Chicago. :pleased:

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