btq96r
-
Posts
6,266 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
40 -
Feedback
100%
Content Type
Forums
Events
Store
Articles
Posts posted by btq96r
-
-
On 4/26/2022 at 11:49 PM, btq96r said:
I have a feeling, just a gut one really, that were in a recession and don't know it quite yet.
Starting to have my gut get some confirmation about a recession, even if economists still need to put 2 and 2 together.
It's one thing when big tech stocks take a body blow. They have wide swings up and down that aren't abnormal, and they were insanely overvalued these last few years as safe places turned into tar pits for good returns. Seeing them fall is a painful but natural result of the current monetary policy. And aside from Amazon, they don't give a good picture of the economy that's centered around moving product.
Walmart, Target, Dollar Tree, Dollar General, Tractor Supply Company...they all got pasted after posting their earnings for Q1. Easy to Google half a hundred articles offering analysis. But I simplify things and look at these companies (and others like them) to think about the spending and consumption habits of everyday people. When these companies have issues, we're not circulating product from producer, to retailer, to consumer as we should be. Like your vascular system, a healthy flow is needed for the body to function. These companies should be able to post steady income over time in normal conditions if the business is being run properly. But normal was so 2019. Their quarterly postings show that the supply chain crunch is still around, the labor market continues to be out of whack, and inflation has become the walls closing in on both companies and consumers alike. When consumers are squeezed and the price elasticity of supply gets funky, recessions happen while companies figure out how to adjust. Economists and government tend to lag in recognizing this while pouring over data.
I still continue to think we're in the unrealized/unannounced phase of a recession. Maybe sooner or later someone in a suit at a podium on TV will tell us what truckers, warehouse workers, and regional managers are seeing in real time now.
-
3
-
-
8 hours ago, JackalopeRider said:
Did you get it fixed?
Not yet. Still trying to peg down a mobile battery replacement service (Firestone's vehicle is too large to clear the entry for the garage. If I can't find one, I'll ask a friend to give me a lift to AutoZone, get what I need, and figure out how to swap it myself.
4 hours ago, gregintenn said:It’s obviously turning the engine over, but it does sound slow. I’d take the battery to the parts house and have it checked. My or may not be your problem.
You don’t have a mouse or squirrel problem by chance, do you? Those little turds have given me fits lately by chewing wire, fuel lines, and the like. I think I’ve thinned them out for the time being.
No critters in play. I'm in a pretty urban area where my apartment building is literally the block. Never seen anything with four legs aside from a dog on a leash in the garage.
-
1
-
-
Thanks for the input everyone. Since I can't even remember when the current battery was put in, I'm going to get it changed out. Have a mobile appointment coming tomorrow for that.
I'm about due for an oil change and an AC recharge, so I'll also ask them to check out the terminal clamps as well.
Appreciate everyone helping out a guy who's an idiot when it comes to all things under the hood.
-
9 minutes ago, superduty said:
Do you drive it every day, and this just happened?
If so, my first guess would be your battery has died, and/or your alternator has gone bad and is no longer charging the battery as you drive it. The last time you drove it discharged the battery too low for it to handle the load of another start. Advance or Auto Zone will test both for you free.
Went the weekend without driving it. Tried to head to the office Monday afternoon and realized it wasn't starting.
Guessing Advance or Auto Zone need me to get the truck to them for the test?
-
-
Gents,
I know squat about vehicles except how to drive them and that gas is required. Can anyone tell me what this problem likely is? I tried jumping the battery from a portable pack and from a friend's vehicle with cables. No dice. It's currently in my apartment garage so if I need to get it to the shop, that's gonna be fun.
-
Are you tracking that Instagram has women, guns, food, and things actually worth looking at/watching being posted on there?
-
On 4/30/2022 at 8:54 PM, Jeb48 said:
Thought this was an interesting chart. Might want to wait a few more months of down before jumping back in if the chart can be believed.
I always advise folks to get in when they can, and not try to time things. If nothing else, it's just simpler and really doesn't show much difference over long periods (like decades worth).
But that chart is really great for reminding us there isn't much that's new, just shades of repeating themes. Think of how bad it looked in each of those years, and what would have happened for someone who panicked.
-
1
-
-
Cute kid. Surely doesn't get that from you.
-
3 minutes ago, Erik88 said:
I'm sure we all feel similar about the ATF, but if they are catching people like this then it sounds like the type of work we want them to be doing. Seems like a legitimate use of their resources.
Having that type of criminal activity at the gun shows only makes things worse for the rest of us.
It's a double edged sword. I'm with you that this is the right kind of work...going after actual criminal activity in firearms procurement. But the examples will be used to try and close the "private seller" exemption/loophole.
-
9
-
-
4 hours ago, Erik88 said:
That's more of an issue with the food manufacturers than it is transportation if I had to guess. I'm sure transportation might have some impact but I think companies are having a hard time getting raw materials and not producing as much product as they would like. Goes back to the labor shortages.
What we're seeing now with the trucking industry is concerning. We're having to solicit freight for the first time since 2019.
3 hours ago, gregintenn said:You have a somewhat unique insight into the trucking situation. This is something I never see reported in the media. I appreciate you sharing with us.
My father was a long haul truck driver for over 30 years. He wasn't a Wall Street wizard, nor had the know how to take his view into any kind of stock strategy...but he knew when things were working well enough, and when things were a mess.
If there is a canary in the coal mine on the health of the US economy, it's the trucking industry. A database to amalgamate enough data from the industry would yield an understanding into a substantial size of the economy and forecasting recessions would get a helluva lot easier. You could even drill down into specific sectors with enough data points.
-
1
-
-
5 hours ago, No_0ne said:
I suspect the freefall isn't done yet - I'm anticipating a real, live bear market coming on ...
I have a feeling, just a gut one really, that were in a recession and don't know it quite yet.
-
3
-
-
2 hours ago, Chucktshoes said:
There’s another facet to our system not doing the training part of what it takes to fill labor slots effectively. There’s also the question of are the requirements for the job realistic or even necessary? If it is cheaper to fill a position with a post secondary educated H1B then with a high school educated native, it begs the question as to whether the degree is actually necessary, or just an arbitrary requirement.
Spot-on. We have a lot of box checking in the hiring process that should be examined. The "labor shortage" forcing that issue would be a benefit.
1 hour ago, gregintenn said:You overlooked the real root cause of the current labor shortage. It is now possible to live comfortably in our country without ever doing anything constructive.
Cut off the government teat, and the labor shortage will end immediately.
It's a conversation to have. Work requirements should be on the table to discuss.
1 hour ago, MacGyver said:Basic coding skills will make you better at just about any job you have - it makes you think differently - and allows you to solve problems with a different toolset.
On a contract job for a DARPA program that was being handed over to big Army, I started to dabble in small things behind the scenes. It wasn't proper coding, but just getting to play with the web.config files of our servers taught me to think with what I now know as paradynamics. It's made me so adaptable to different problems and needs where I can be of benefit to the organization. It's why you see a lot of engineer types in financial analysis (one of which I learned a lot from in my first two years on the current job before he left).
QuoteWe are a system, by and large; much of what surrounds us are systems in one way or another. The key premise of paradynamic modelling is that any system structure needs to be seen as potentially inherently complex rather than simple, and as necessarily multi-dimensional. Every system is seen as tending to operate on a number of ‘levels’, and/or axes, where there are component parts within each level, and where processes of interaction occur between different-level components. The levels operate in parallel with each other and the components within each level can intersect with components on other levels in a dynamic process of interaction.
-
6 minutes ago, Erik88 said:
I wonder if there is a point at which this isn't true? Meaning can we get to a point where there are more open job openings than qualified workers? We're back to unemployment numbers we saw before the pandemic(50 year lows).
I have a theory on what might have to happen to fill the gaps but it would be extremely unpopular on TGO.
We probably have that now. Our system was not optimized to train well. I suppose my prior comments should come with the disclaimer about that, but I was really talking about the labor market in a competitive sense. When there's real competition for workers, companies can and should undercut each other to attract/retain talent. We're seeing it in a lot of places...nursing is a great example of where a sub-service the whole enterprise can't do without needs to be funded at least a short-term loss to stay solvent.
And yeah...you're avoiding the "i word"...but as we reach the realistic work limits of our current population, we'll need more labor to keep things even, and certainly to grow. It's just a question of if we're ready to have a work based system that's used to close gaps, because the primary purpose for the old one was to keep wages suppressed.
-
3
-
-
Repeat after me: there is no such thing as a labor shortage in a free market.
Every job can be filled for the right price. That may be more than acceptable profits for an employer would allow, and I get that means the cost of things go up to correct the margin. But that's not the labor market's fault, that's a consumer issue. If a service or product is too expensive to produce at a point where it can be tendered for a profit...it's either the financial model being unreasonable, or the service/product itself is the problem. This is a healthy purging of inefficiencies in an unbalanced labor market. It's messy now, but good for the long-term.
A lot of folks aren't leaving the workforce, they're just switching jobs because hiring is catering to what their current employer for some reason refuses to budge on some things. Expectations are high on that list. I'm seeing this a lot in my place of employment.
"Good pay" is subjective when people have finally woken up to realize just how tilted the system really is towards those with equity and their capital partners. I'm still a capitalist despite what some probably think, but if we don't have vibrant jobs that provide an avenue for upward mobility for the middle class, it's Marx/Lenin time sooner rather than later. Workers want more returns from their effort than they're getting. Right now, there is so much competition that for the first time in a long time, they have options to seek that. They're also seeing out other incentives than W2 comp. A lot of folks will come back to the office kicking and screaming, and look for a job where that's not required.
I applaud those who put family and personal happiness over a false satisfaction they get from working themselves to the bone. I'm not able to be among them yet, but that's a psychological flaw on me I hope to work out someday. We let ourselves become our work before other things, and a sociological change was pretty much overdue.
-
3
-
1
-
-
If our economy is good at one thing, it's optimizing the price point to exactly what someone can afford to pay. Not necessarily what they want to pay, but what they can handle for the most part. Some level of credit always comes into play, often enough over leveraging folks who don't think critically. The housing market is a great example of this.
With the interest rates going up, you'll stop seeing the insane trajectory of home values rising. Supply and demand issues will keep them from dropping locally I think. But there's only so much someone can actually afford, and the market is very efficient at sniffing that value out. It's why the low interest rates have fueled the housing boom as much as California refugees.
In the end, the amount of money from someone's pocket in monthly payment won't change much, but the sale prices will stabilize, and the banks will make more money from interest. Just a tilting of what comes from which side of the formula. Financial institutions will always win in the great coin flip. Heads, they get steady cash flow from interest payments at a good rate. Tails, they ride the wave of asset inflation (rising stocks and home prices) by being the broker of capital during the spending sprees. We're just swinging the pendulum at the moment because things got too out of whack one way, so we needs try the other way for a bit until we find a happy point. Then before long someone or a great many someones will muck it up again.
-
On 4/23/2022 at 5:10 PM, Grunt67 said:
I got the bad news I had been expecting & dreading this afternoon. Ken Stumpfs' son called to tell me he had passed today about 2:30 pm.
As I said before, he was a good man, friend, & soldier. He will be missed. Not a day went by I didn't think of him.
At least he is no longer suffering.
Rest in peace, Stumpy.
I would normally say "may his memory be a blessing", but clearly in Stumpy's case, it was, is, and forever will be.
Condolences, Grunt. I'm glad this man was around when you needed him, and stayed in your life for the rest of his.
-
1
-
-
21 minutes ago, Erik88 said:
I'm just thankful I'm not trying to buy a house right now. The 30 year fixed rate is now 6.75%.
Yeah that's my situation. Between my fears of buying due to a weird job situation, not really knowing what I wanted when I started and adversion to feeling like I'll be settling...it's fast forwarded me to a place where I had to live with a rent hike while missing the boat on a good house at a cheap mortgage.
Kicking myself in near perpetuity.
-
9 hours ago, gregintenn said:
After today. “Let’s Go Brandon!” is about all I can muster.
This has been about 10 years in the making. I just finished a book about the Federal Reserve that explains a lot of their moves in understandable English, laying out how the entire economy was transformed by the zero interest rate policy and quantative easing programs that became standard procedure when they were developed as emergency measures.
Highly recommend it for anyone who finds these matters relevant or fascinating.
https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Lords-of-Easy-Money/Christopher-Leonard/9781982166632
-
2
-
-
13 hours ago, gregintenn said:
We’ve had several years of back to back record growth in the stock market. It would be foolish to expect that to continue forever. I’m still buying. If you don’t stay in, inflation will eat you alive. It’s a sale right now!
I’ll leave the bonds to somebody else.
Not just long term growth by itself...this was fueled by the Fed sprinkling the market with PCP in the form of all their programs. Savings became punitive, and capital jumped at any asset with a growth story to tell. Now we're going to see how skewed from reality some of that was.
This is like coming home from a good night at a steakhouse. Yes, you ate well, and it was tasty, but there's only so much your body can handle. The excess needs to be expelled or converted to waste and processed. A healthy limit is retained, and you move on for the next meal. Proper markets resemble nature like that.
But there's no long term answer other than to buy and hold like you mention. Good times and bad will come, just have to stick to it.
-
1
-
-
Good time to refresh this thread for folks to do an azimuth check with the market in a bit of a malaise. Anyone looking for a port in the storm? If you loved you some Netflix, probably don't as much after yesterday.
I'm still holding onto my mutual funds for the long term plan, and am down somewhere between 13-15% YTD, with a loss for a 12 month period. The stock hits I'm brushing off as air coming out of the balloon, and it ain't done yet with debt not cheap for fueling growth. Gotta happen so we can take better steps forward. It's my bond fund I keep cussing at the losses for. I use that to hold money for a down payment on a house (fading dream thanks to rate hikes) and my next car fund. I'm losing real value, and inflation is junk punching.
And my poor friends who have (had) decent money in an ARK fund...oof.
Feel for you guys, this fall from grace is rough. It's amazing to me that people are still letting Cathie Wood manage capital after things she's said lately.
Looking more and more like it's hangover time, and not party time anymore.
-
1
-
-
3 hours ago, OldIronFan said:
Then you get into the Polymer 80 craze. No one fronted the money for the tooling to produce those if they did not expect a significant profit on the back end.
Judging by the level of emails I got about sales on the Polymer 80s, it just rang that the whole concept was a big money grab probably backed with a lot of VC money looking for a good return given how quick things materialized. And I get it...gun owners spend well, don't see firearms purchases as wasting disposable income for the most part, and boy do we love a perceived loophole to ATF shenanigans.
-
1
-
-
17 minutes ago, deerslayer said:
Right, but the claim is the 45000 were RECOVERED, not merely MANUFACTURED.
You can times that number by 5 and you still only have a 1/100 ratio of manufactured ghost guns to sold guns.
I don't think it's so absurd as to be instantly dismissed. The capacity for production is out there, and we've had a wonky few years where economic incentive was ripe.
-
17 hours ago, OldIronFan said:
I also believe this to be the case. I read a comment thread on a popular AR building discussion board regarding the original poster seeing a table at a gun show where a non licensed (no FFL) seller had a table full of completed weapons built on completed 80% lowers. When he was asked about it he claimed that it was perfectly legal for him to sell them despite the fact that he was clearly doing it as a for profit venture. This was followed by multiple posters claiming they had seem similar sellers at gun shows in a number of areas. Several of the posters confirmed these accounts by claiming they were at the same show and saw the same sellers.
If there were a handful of accounts of this happening out in the open at a gun show you can bet there is far more of it going on on the "street".
I have been asked multiple times to complete 80% lowers and build complete weapons from them for individuals once they found out I had the machining capability to do it. Those inquiries normally came from people without knowledge of the laws regarding 80% receiver builds and usually sprouted from random conversations at the range. Usually off hand comments when checking out one of my builds along the lines of "so how much would you charge me to build one for me?". I am absolutely positive there are plenty of builders out there who would throw out a dollar figure in response rather than turn them down as I do.I'm always skeptical of numbers the government throws out, but I can absolutely see the logic in what you're describing here. Plenty of entrepreneurial initiative meets loose ethics potential in the country.
I know 45,000 seems like a large number, and in abstract, it is. But in 2020, guns were flying off the shelves. Some reports as many as 23 million were sold. So, it's not hard to imagine that 0.20% of that number could be added on in "ghost guns" from various sources nationwide. The equipment and technical know how is abundant enough.
Mechanic Types: Help
in General Chat
Posted · Edited by btq96r
I'm set....and have a great story to share.
https://nashvillemobilemechanic.co/
The guy who runs this service (one man shop) was able to come directly to my location, get in my garage, because his service vehicle is a Ford Ranger kitted out as a mobile toolbox. Where AAA and Firestone couldn't meet the clearance of my garage, this guy saved the day (or at least kept me from pushing the vehicle with someone steering it in neutral out into the street). Super friendly, and was able to swap in a new battery for me no problem. I 'm happy to put money from my pocket into his business account for the services rendered, and glad I found him.
I love this kind of entrepreneurial spirit in striking out solo and putting in the work with his own two hands. Says he's staying pretty busy, which I can see in a booming Nashville Metro Area. Despite all my feelings of woe about the economy at large, I think this guy will stay in good shape come what may.
Truck is humming along. He said the alternator and everything else he looked at while changing the battery are good to go. Time to get back to work. Thanks again to all for the knowledge you shared.