MacGyver
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Posts posted by MacGyver
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1 hour ago, hipower said:
Even then...will we get the entire "manifesto"? Much as we hate it, and hate to believe such things happen; who's to say we won't recieve a redacted version?
Agenda driven politicans and media could decide to release "what's best for us" to know.
It has happened before.
The manifesto doesn't matter.
As reasonable people we're drawn to looking for a reason for something - but sometimes there just isn't one. A mentor told me a long time ago when working a case involving children that, "you're trying to make logical sense of something that can't be understood." The reason it happened was this person was terribly broken.
Should it be studied by people who might look for warning signs in other cases? Sure, I guess. Even that probably won't do much good. It's not like any legislature is going to give them the tools to do something about it.
This girl did contact a former middle school teammate and tell her she was going to do something terrible and that she was going to die. She received the message at a few minutes before 10:00 The girl made contact with 911 at 10:13. The first call from campus happened at 10:14.
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My wife works less than a mile from there. Truly horrific situation.
MNPD engaged quickly.
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Glad you’re okay. That could have been a lot worse.
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Grimey’s and Phonoluxe are great. Third Man Records doesn’t have a lot of vintage but is worth a visit.
McKay’s and Great Escape have a ton of stuff.
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He also was apparently quite involved in several video game series. He’s Sylens in the Horizon Zero Dawn franchise - which if you’ve played that and Forbidden West - it’s quite the storyline.
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Credit Suisse has been known to have problems for over a year now - but their stock is down 97% and their priced in chances of collapse are currently at 47%.
They’d be considered an SIB (systemically important bank) or as you might know it - “too big to fail.”
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15 minutes ago, Erik88 said:
Interest rates go up and down over time. How did these banks not see this coming? Greed?
There are some peculiarities to a bank where a lot of equity investors keep bringing in dump trucks of cash and they’re not lending a bunch out.
Matt Levine (whose newsletter you should probably read) put it really well:
QuoteBut there is another, subtler, more dangerous exposure to interest rates: You are the Bank of Startups, and startups are a low-interest-rate phenomenon. When interest rates are low everywhere, a dollar in 20 years is about as good as a dollar today, so a startup whose business model is “we will lose money for a decade building artificial intelligence, and then rake in lots of money in the far future” sounds pretty good. When interest rates are higher, a dollar today is better than a dollar tomorrow, so investors want cash flows. When interest rates were low for a long time, and suddenly become high, all the money that was rushing to your customers is suddenly cut off. Your clients who were “obtaining liquidity through liquidity events, such as IPOs, secondary offerings, SPAC fundraising, venture capital investments, acquisitions and other fundraising activities” stop doing that. Your customers keep taking money out of the bank to pay rent and salaries, but they stop depositing new money.
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2 hours ago, Erik88 said:
Can you expand on this for those of us(me) that don't understand. If a bank owns a mortgage and those customers are still paying their mortgage payment, why does this matter?
My wife works for a title company and we've been seeing her pay checks shrink every month as they close fewer homes. I'm curious how much worse things will get.
Think about it like this. Let’s assume a borrower wants to buy a house with a traditional 30-year fixed mortgage and 20% down. They’d like to keep their payment to $2000/month.
A year and a half ago before rates started rising, that couple could have gotten a mortgage at 2.25% and would have been shopping for a $520k house. Today, at 7.09% that same buyer with the same fundamentals is looking for a $330k house to keep their payment at something they can afford. So that couple’s budget has been cut to around 63% of what it was before rates started rising.
That same kind of math applies in a different way when banks bundle up big packages of mortgage and sell them as mortgage backed securities. They’re suddenly holding something that was worth less than it was last year. Importantly for this story they have it on their books and this have to account for losses in value.
For the average homeowner, it really doesn’t matter so long as you’re not planning on moving anytime soon. If you bought a house in late 2021 and then needed to sell it because your job got transferred or whatever - then you might well find yourself underwater.
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16 hours ago, Chucktshoes said:
“Tested to NIJ” is not the same thing as “NIJ tested”.
That’s right. Those are totally different animals.
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I though I’d post this here just to put a stake in the sand, because this may turn out to be one of the most important charts we’ll see this year:
What you’re basically looking at on this chart is unrealized losses in the hundreds of billions. Mortgage backed securities (remember the other time in recent memory where you heard/learned this term) are trading way lower. The underlying cause is essentially that mortgages closed in 2020 and 2021 are now basically trading at 65 cents on the dollar.
It turns out that interest rates go up, too. And, a lot of our venture backed business models simply don’t work when money isn’t free.
There are a few “bloggers” who have been talking about this. A lot of people read their newsletters. You probably saw Thursday that a a few venture capitalists told their portfolio companies to move their money from one of these banks and caused a bank run that wound up collapsing the 18th largest bank in the country - Silicon Valley Bank.
Panics are a funny thing - and I think there’s a non-zero chance of seeing some much larger collapses this week.
Ought to be an awfully interesting week. I hope I’m wrong.
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25 minutes ago, Luckyforward said:
RECIPE PLEASE!
I’m a squash casserole fan - I’ll eat about any variant.
This is about the best one I’ve had - it’s not runny at all and is really good:
https://gardenandgun.com/recipe/squash-casserole/
Its earned its place at our Thanksgiving table.
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Jiffy has a place in the Southern lexicon at least as much as Martha White or White Lily. It’s not my idea of “cornbread” - but it’s great as a muffin. I like mixing up a couple of boxes and cooking it in a loaf pan. Then I like to slice it, butter it up, and then toast it up in a skillet.
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1/2 cup unsalted butter melted or bacon grease
1 cup all-purpose flour
1 cup yellow cornmeal or polenta
1 tablespoon sugar (optional - doesn’t make it sweet)
2 teaspoons baking powder
1/2 teaspoon baking soda
1/2 teaspoon salt
1 1/2 cup buttermilk
2 large eggs
This is for your big cast iron. Half it and use a smaller 6” cast iron.
Buttermilk is the key ingredient. If I’m being particular- use King Arthur all purpose flour and the best cornmeal you can find.
Pro tip - stick your cast iron in the oven and melt your butter in the cast iron. Pour the rest of your batter over it once hot. Don’t mix it. You’ll get a great crust that way.
Made this the other evening along with a big pot of red beans and rice for several homeless guys. Several mentioned that it was the best meal they’d had all season. There is joy in good simplicity.
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I've used the ones above in size medium and size large. I don't notice a huge difference.
I take them off if I'm getting something out of my pocket - but other than that I'm usually able to leave them on. If I'm writing/marking - it's probably with a construction pencil - and I use one that clips on my pocket or tool belt and can simple be dropped down into the holder.
While I'm here - let me go ahead and make a pitch for the greatest construction pencil ever...
https://www.amazon.com/Pica-Dry-Longlife-Automatic-Pencil-3030/dp/B002X7Y90U
@peejmanif you've not used one of these - you should get one - the whole design of the thing just brings a smile to any engineer's face.
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59 minutes ago, NoBanStan said:
It seems like i'm always replacing gloves.
I don’t know that you’ll totally get away from that. I‘d love to have a nice pair of leather gloves with all kinds of character like you see in the old western movies. But there’s a reason you only see those in the movies - because they’re not real.
If we’re using gloves to protect our hands - then they’re a consumable item and we should think of them like that.
So then it’s down to balancing “how do I consume these less frequently at a reasonable price point.“ The gloves I posted above meet that criteria for me. They’re super comfortable, and it doesn’t make me viscerally angry to have to replace them. I can’t even count how many mechanic type gloves I’ve worn out over the years after less than a day of use. Paying 25 or 30 bucks for a “heavy duty” pair just makes you mad when they wear out.
I keep two types of gloves around. The ones I posted above, and a $20 box of nitrile gloves that I use when I just want to keep my hands clean.
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These “HydraHyde” gloves by Wells Lamont are on the shelf at Lowe’s and have become my favorite over the last several years. Whatever they treat them with really seems to toughen the leather up while still staying soft.
https://www.lowes.com/pd/Wells-Lamont-HydraHyde-Large-Mens-Leather-Multipurpose-Gloves/1000380323
I don’t use gloves on a daily basis - but I’d call myself a heavy weekly user. I just bought my third pair in maybe 6 years - the second pair is still fine. I wore the first pair out.
They’re typically around $15 so they won’t break the bank
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Those old Weaver K4s are about as good a workhorse scope as you'll find
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That’s a ridiculous deal.
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Let me bump this so that @TGO David sees it.
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Tennessee has one of the best bream fisheries in the world - and I think it's really under appreciated - out at Reelfoot Lake. It's the only place I've ever seen a competitive bluegill tournament.
Great panfishing at large - and some giant crappie if you hit it right.
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10 hours ago, Photoguy67 said:
Please forgive my ignorance, but what separates the kme system from wicked edge or lansko or any of the others?
They’re all similar. I’d put the KME sort of in between a Lansky set and the Wicked Edge.
I like the easily adjustable nature of the KME. I also think it’s a good value. If you’re planning on doing it professionally, the Wicked Edge (and a bunch of other stuff) might be for you. For the average consumer, the KME is more than adequate.
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Don’t forget a good strop. With a modern steel like M4 - you really shouldn’t have to sharpen it berg often. Regular stropping will keep it popping sharp with minimal effort.
I like StropMan (now StropBros) strops. But there’s nothing fancy about a strop. You can make your own with some wood and a piece of leather.
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Don’t let M4 scare you.
A Spyderco tri-angle sharp maker will sharpen everything you’ll ever need to sharpen - and do it well.
If you want a little bit of an upgrade that will really let you take your edge to any level of finish you desire, a KME Precision set will let you do that without risking screwing up a nice knife.
I have some really nice stones - but use the two above for pretty much everything in my life but axes and chainsaw blades.
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Since 2014 - public access to the Death Master File has been limited. But, like was mentioned above - a trip down to your local SSA office is certainly the first step on the path to getting it addressed.
Hopefully it was someone miskeying your SSN when you applied for a card. You could probably check for yourself by trying to pull your credit report at https://www.annualcreditreport.com/index.action.
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school shooting in Nashville at the Covenant School
in General Chat
Posted
We live in a terribly fallen world.
Events like yesterday are worst nightmares realized.
When I look at the arc of scripture from Genesis to Revelation - I know that we're closer to the end than we are the beginning. That Jesus broke the curse of the garden - and has put the end game in motion.
It cannot come soon enough.
I appreciate that we do not mourn without hope.
Because it sure feels awfully heavy right now.