btq96r

FDIC can borrow from the government, issue debt, and likely have money appropriated by Congress. It's not easy to tap their cash reserves, but it became a conversation during the 2008 GFC. That was one of the drivers behind the Fed and Treasury marrying the banks up making Too Big(ger) to Fail. It saved the question of how far the FDIC could stretch from becoming an operational problem.

I was watching them back then as well. The risk they took going independent and relying only on subscription and YouTube/Spotify revenue was pretty substantial. But their work is worth rewarding. I don't always agree with their conclusions, but their way of approaching a story is refreshing.

Krystal and Saggar do a magnificent job of breaking down things to not just explain it to regular folks, but how it impacts regular folks. They have been all over this. Their show on Monday was fantastic, even for folks like me who still like the wonky details. I'm really hoping their independent journalism and populist mindsets catch on.

Frank was on the board of the other bank that went under late last week, Signature Bank. Not sure about any Chinese firms at either, but wouldn't shock me. They have to bank somewhere for their interests in the US. https://apnews.com/article/signature-bank-fdic-barney-frank-silicon-valley-6ad86262d9945675a42d735b66ace4f2 Frank said this was meant as a warning to crypto banks. While I'm guessing the Fed and Treasury weren't sad to see a bank that changed its focus to crypto customers go under, this doesn't appear to be anything besides a normal bank run. It seems Bitcoin does not "fix this" just yet. The FDIC also guaranteed deposits in excess of $250k, once again changing that limit to infinity. No tax dollars at work...yet. The FDIC funding can still cover things since the assets of the bank aren't junk.

This was the only real good part here. The shareholders of SVB will be ran down to zero in their equity, and the management team is out of a job. To be sure, it was only the size of SVB that let this consequence be applied. JP Morgan or Bank of America would get the '08 treatment again if this was a problem they encountered. So, it's easy to think of this as compared to 2008, but this is more like all the smaller banks that failed during that time, not the big institutions that were given large grants from the Treasury/Fed and paired up in arraigned marriages that made them even bigger. SVB just got a lot of attention due to the VC money tied up in the accounts. It was more a business to business bank than a community one in essence. There is a lot of angst over how the CEO and others had stock sale transactions occur very recently, and while it seems a good bit of that was on a drawn out plan (it's how executives with performance based comp cash flow their lives, and it is tax season), it makes sense if they felt the winds blowing and took some money to their personal accounts on the way down. While I'm only so sympathetic, that CEO, CFO, and likely a few others from the BOD aren't going to be done with the mess for a while, and will likely be in some legal muck along the way. So, without a corporation to fob those expenses off onto, they need to pay for it out of pocket and have some cash to float themselves.

The key word is trading here. The real number value of the mortgage payments are still what it was closed at. But in 2020 and 2021, a lot of people buying homes did so under some very favorable interest rates, and more people were on their heels to refinance. That's a lot of money locked in a the low end of the spectrum, the value of that money having gone for a roller-coaster ride in three years. With inflation eating away the value of the dollar and interest rates going up, holding those assets is at best money in a tar pit, and at worst, seen as a loss when adjusted in real terms (ie: after inflation). So, if a financial organization wants to get them off the books and free up capital for better use, they sell them at a discount to entice a buyer and move on. After all, who would buy a mortgage no matter how secure returning 3% when you can buy a T-Bill that is the safest investment on the planet returning 5%, or a corporate bond above that even. They're doing this because money isn't essentially free to borrow anymore, so they have to gin it up from their own assets and returns. Think of it as selling a gun you bought during a Republican administration that was cheap, but you're not using it anymore, to get money that partially funds your next purchase when a Democrat is in the White House, and guns are more expensive. That's about as TGO friendly a parable I can use for this situation, but it's a bit imperfect. Last year the big deal was inflation gut punching the consumer. For at least now, the big deal is inflation gut punching the financial institutions. Corporate bonds are probably on deck for valuation hits.

Oh, I've got some four letter word laced opinions on this whole mess. How the risk of rising interest rates wasn't considered is the first problem. For all the issues people have with Jerome Powell (JPow), he speaks a concise English on macroeconomic topics. These rate hikes were neither a surprise nor at a pace people didn't know was coming. I guess risk management is a nag when it lowers EBITDA and EPS come bonus time. Next, while I realize the need to stop a contagion of bank runs at the speed of wire transfers...we've pretty much set the standard that FDIC insurance limits are now...well, all deposits in the country. They can say taxpayers aren't on the hook...what they really mean is not yet. After the FDIC piggy bank from funding of the program by banks runs dry, they tap the "full faith and credit of the government of the United States of America." Congrats, America. We all in on making sure all the depositors of SVB are safe. While we did save the paycheck flow for everyday people (I have a friend who's company banks with SVB), we also prolonged the stupid companies keeping up operations. I get we only had the weekend, but I'm not jazzed about saving the 7th app based scooter rental company just because their account was in a bank connected to a lot of very rich people with their VC money tied to those companies as angel investors. The cash outlay here will be minimal at the end; SVB had a liquidity problem, not a toxic asset problem. But the bar has been set. Buckle up...this is the intro, not the story. One of Warren Buffet's often used aphorisms is about to play out and we're about to see some people hanging brain. It's only when the tide goes out that you learn who has been swimming naked. So many businesses, plus their CFOs are not ready for this lesson. It's going to be painful. Like learning the lessons all over in Iraq, just with red dollar signs and numbers instead of flag draped caskets. $250k isn't enough for companies. It works for everyday people, but not business accounts. It used to be $100k, then we raised it to $250k, during the '08 GFC, so, it's just a number we make up after getting some data points. We need to raise it for businesses so there are reasonable operating parameters and we don't have to backstop all of the cashflow accounts and lockboxes across the financial sector. Then we can let bad companies fail through their own financial mismanagement. That's a feature, not a bug. Conservative/Libertarians got a gut check this weekend, and a lot were found wanting over on Financial Twitter....looking at you, David Sacks (yup, real name).

Only at Sub-MOA.

Glad we're paying for a Space Force to watch the Air Force from whence it came shoot down UFOs.

Wait for enough of these encounters. The way the military loves to make an award for anything will kick in.

Why are you so anti-profit for Raytheon?

I think it was more a test than actual spying. Like others, I can't see the benefit from that balloon over what they can get through low orbit satellites and existing cyber efforts. What I think the actual test involved, was how territorial we would be in airspace that high, and if/where we would take it down. I think China was looking for a parallel to what they could presumably get away with and keep a straight face when it comes to our surveillance efforts over territory they claim in and around Taiwan, and other points of interest for them in the South Pacific. Remember, for China, there isn't much difference in what they control versus what they claim. The stronger they've gotten, the more they've been pushing on the latter. The OMG factor from the local and national news was entertaining (sorta), but the real impact I think will be in how this translates to what happens in the areas China has in mind for annexing 10-20-30 years down the line. I don't think this is the last trial balloon (pun intended) we might see.

Keep waiting. I doubt Aaron Rodgers wants to be in the same Hall of Fame class as Tom Brady. He'll probably do one more year so he can be the top of the 2029 class after today's news.

Haven't watched it yet, but will sometime this weekend. I feel compelled to bear witness in a strange way. We'll continue to have the conversation in America about what people feel when they see a cop...their rights and safety being protected, or a danger to their liberties and person. Would that these five officers didn't give us more to consider the worse of that answer. Hoping rage doesn't win the next few nights. The family of the victim certainly made their appeal for catharsis without the need for fire and blood.

Rep. Gaetz didn't file this thinking it was anything other than a press release.

Make sure you tell the manager, or even the owner if you have their contact info. It's perfectly legit for a business to want to establish a customer database for various reasons, but a gun store especially should know that is an iffy thing with parts of their customer base. If it makes you take your business online or elsewhere in town, that's a data point they should have as well. Sorry to hear this about Nashville Armory. I'm a Royal Range guy, but had a positive experience for my visits to Nashville Armory.

The Federal Register is a publication of record across the government. Once this rule is published, it enforceable by law. That is until it gets tied up in court (which should happen soon enough). Back in June 2021 this rule was proposed and opened to public comment. So ATF actually slow rolled it over a year and a half when it could have taken about a third of that time.

This is a great point. We had to epic playoff games back to back. The entertainment value of NYE was amazing. The whole college season was a resounding success as well. It was a bit disappointing to anyone not a Georgia fan because the championship wasn't good TV, but that was a blip otherwise phenomenal season we should appreciate.

The breakthroughs in nuclear fusion are what has me thinking that EVs are not as impossible as we thought. I don't think it'll be on the current timeline, even as an intermediate step, the battery capacity and production cost of an EV are getting better every year. People keep thinking about the here and now and not how far we'll be down the line. We've got more EVs out on the road than people believed would be practical 5 years ago. Imagine 5 years from now, 10, ect. Industry wouldn't be getting behind this, or letting the government force things unless they felt it was worth the time and investment, or they had the ability to alter the mandate as needs dictate.

A sports book is a crazy fun place to watch a big game. Even the less than big games can be fun if it's the only one on at the time. Plus you know anyone betting big enough to be emotionally swooned on Thursday Night Football is a diehard gambler.

People can talk about how gold and silver protect value against inflation, and that may be true on paper. Have we ever had a period in modern memory where attempts to convert gold and silver to transactional currency happened en masse for the perceived value? The GFC in 2008 and COVID in 2020 maybe gave us some examples of people trying to redeem gold and silver for cash? I'm not trying to be facetious, just asking a question. I keep enough knowledge to opine on stocks and legal tender, but don't really understand the value of precious metals as anything other than the hedge as a theory. With the topic of this thread being where is a local dealer for gold and silver, I wonder how much of a barter system really exists now, let alone in a time of crisis. You can look up the exchange rate of gold and silver to the USD, but nothing is guaranteed on the availability of a buyer or the price from what I understand. It would be a classic free market transaction without any price controls. Gold is real pretty to look at, and a friend gifted me a special run 35yr old gold coin from the West Point mint over the holidays which was extremely generous, so my interest has recently been piqued some. But if I'm looking to have funds that can survive the worst to come, give ma a money market account tied to treasury securities and US Government securities. The yield may not beat inflation (especially currently), but it's safe as can be, and I know I'll have the value in cash hit my account in 2-3 business days.

Did you go to the sports book to watch?

I hate that a family lost someone when they should have been celebrating together. There's just nothing to soothe that. The fine line between keeping society civil and protecting your own life is murky sometimes. I don't want to see the San Francisco scenario. But I also would never say retail stores meet the market for risking your life over. Your family, friends, and country are worth dying for... inventory isn't. Even if your preferred measure of justice is served, there is nothing good in this.

The weather was really bad for two, maybe three days. And by really bad, I mean so far out of variance with norms that it taxed the system too much. Is the grid really supposed to be configured to handle 2 bad days out of 365? It's reasonable to talk about what's being done to handle each new subdivision or factory and warehouse going up. But I don't think we're in a death spiral with infrastructure. It was just a statistically unlikely few days.