btq96r

Cute kid. Surely doesn't get that from you.

It's a double edged sword. I'm with you that this is the right kind of work...going after actual criminal activity in firearms procurement. But the examples will be used to try and close the "private seller" exemption/loophole.

My father was a long haul truck driver for over 30 years. He wasn't a Wall Street wizard, nor had the know how to take his view into any kind of stock strategy...but he knew when things were working well enough, and when things were a mess. If there is a canary in the coal mine on the health of the US economy, it's the trucking industry. A database to amalgamate enough data from the industry would yield an understanding into a substantial size of the economy and forecasting recessions would get a helluva lot easier. You could even drill down into specific sectors with enough data points.

I have a feeling, just a gut one really, that were in a recession and don't know it quite yet.

Spot-on. We have a lot of box checking in the hiring process that should be examined. The "labor shortage" forcing that issue would be a benefit. It's a conversation to have. Work requirements should be on the table to discuss. On a contract job for a DARPA program that was being handed over to big Army, I started to dabble in small things behind the scenes. It wasn't proper coding, but just getting to play with the web.config files of our servers taught me to think with what I now know as paradynamics. It's made me so adaptable to different problems and needs where I can be of benefit to the organization. It's why you see a lot of engineer types in financial analysis (one of which I learned a lot from in my first two years on the current job before he left).

We probably have that now. Our system was not optimized to train well. I suppose my prior comments should come with the disclaimer about that, but I was really talking about the labor market in a competitive sense. When there's real competition for workers, companies can and should undercut each other to attract/retain talent. We're seeing it in a lot of places...nursing is a great example of where a sub-service the whole enterprise can't do without needs to be funded at least a short-term loss to stay solvent. And yeah...you're avoiding the "i word"...but as we reach the realistic work limits of our current population, we'll need more labor to keep things even, and certainly to grow. It's just a question of if we're ready to have a work based system that's used to close gaps, because the primary purpose for the old one was to keep wages suppressed.

Repeat after me: there is no such thing as a labor shortage in a free market. Every job can be filled for the right price. That may be more than acceptable profits for an employer would allow, and I get that means the cost of things go up to correct the margin. But that's not the labor market's fault, that's a consumer issue. If a service or product is too expensive to produce at a point where it can be tendered for a profit...it's either the financial model being unreasonable, or the service/product itself is the problem. This is a healthy purging of inefficiencies in an unbalanced labor market. It's messy now, but good for the long-term. A lot of folks aren't leaving the workforce, they're just switching jobs because hiring is catering to what their current employer for some reason refuses to budge on some things. Expectations are high on that list. I'm seeing this a lot in my place of employment. "Good pay" is subjective when people have finally woken up to realize just how tilted the system really is towards those with equity and their capital partners. I'm still a capitalist despite what some probably think, but if we don't have vibrant jobs that provide an avenue for upward mobility for the middle class, it's Marx/Lenin time sooner rather than later. Workers want more returns from their effort than they're getting. Right now, there is so much competition that for the first time in a long time, they have options to seek that. They're also seeing out other incentives than W2 comp. A lot of folks will come back to the office kicking and screaming, and look for a job where that's not required. I applaud those who put family and personal happiness over a false satisfaction they get from working themselves to the bone. I'm not able to be among them yet, but that's a psychological flaw on me I hope to work out someday. We let ourselves become our work before other things, and a sociological change was pretty much overdue.

If our economy is good at one thing, it's optimizing the price point to exactly what someone can afford to pay. Not necessarily what they want to pay, but what they can handle for the most part. Some level of credit always comes into play, often enough over leveraging folks who don't think critically. The housing market is a great example of this. With the interest rates going up, you'll stop seeing the insane trajectory of home values rising. Supply and demand issues will keep them from dropping locally I think. But there's only so much someone can actually afford, and the market is very efficient at sniffing that value out. It's why the low interest rates have fueled the housing boom as much as California refugees. In the end, the amount of money from someone's pocket in monthly payment won't change much, but the sale prices will stabilize, and the banks will make more money from interest. Just a tilting of what comes from which side of the formula. Financial institutions will always win in the great coin flip. Heads, they get steady cash flow from interest payments at a good rate. Tails, they ride the wave of asset inflation (rising stocks and home prices) by being the broker of capital during the spending sprees. We're just swinging the pendulum at the moment because things got too out of whack one way, so we needs try the other way for a bit until we find a happy point. Then before long someone or a great many someones will muck it up again.

I would normally say "may his memory be a blessing", but clearly in Stumpy's case, it was, is, and forever will be. Condolences, Grunt. I'm glad this man was around when you needed him, and stayed in your life for the rest of his.

Yeah that's my situation. Between my fears of buying due to a weird job situation, not really knowing what I wanted when I started and adversion to feeling like I'll be settling...it's fast forwarded me to a place where I had to live with a rent hike while missing the boat on a good house at a cheap mortgage. Kicking myself in near perpetuity.

This has been about 10 years in the making. I just finished a book about the Federal Reserve that explains a lot of their moves in understandable English, laying out how the entire economy was transformed by the zero interest rate policy and quantative easing programs that became standard procedure when they were developed as emergency measures. Highly recommend it for anyone who finds these matters relevant or fascinating. https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Lords-of-Easy-Money/Christopher-Leonard/9781982166632

Not just long term growth by itself...this was fueled by the Fed sprinkling the market with PCP in the form of all their programs. Savings became punitive, and capital jumped at any asset with a growth story to tell. Now we're going to see how skewed from reality some of that was. This is like coming home from a good night at a steakhouse. Yes, you ate well, and it was tasty, but there's only so much your body can handle. The excess needs to be expelled or converted to waste and processed. A healthy limit is retained, and you move on for the next meal. Proper markets resemble nature like that. But there's no long term answer other than to buy and hold like you mention. Good times and bad will come, just have to stick to it.

Good time to refresh this thread for folks to do an azimuth check with the market in a bit of a malaise. Anyone looking for a port in the storm? If you loved you some Netflix, probably don't as much after yesterday. I'm still holding onto my mutual funds for the long term plan, and am down somewhere between 13-15% YTD, with a loss for a 12 month period. The stock hits I'm brushing off as air coming out of the balloon, and it ain't done yet with debt not cheap for fueling growth. Gotta happen so we can take better steps forward. It's my bond fund I keep cussing at the losses for. I use that to hold money for a down payment on a house (fading dream thanks to rate hikes) and my next car fund. I'm losing real value, and inflation is junk punching. And my poor friends who have (had) decent money in an ARK fund...oof. Feel for you guys, this fall from grace is rough. It's amazing to me that people are still letting Cathie Wood manage capital after things she's said lately. Looking more and more like it's hangover time, and not party time anymore.

Judging by the level of emails I got about sales on the Polymer 80s, it just rang that the whole concept was a big money grab probably backed with a lot of VC money looking for a good return given how quick things materialized. And I get it...gun owners spend well, don't see firearms purchases as wasting disposable income for the most part, and boy do we love a perceived loophole to ATF shenanigans.

You can times that number by 5 and you still only have a 1/100 ratio of manufactured ghost guns to sold guns. I don't think it's so absurd as to be instantly dismissed. The capacity for production is out there, and we've had a wonky few years where economic incentive was ripe.

I'm always skeptical of numbers the government throws out, but I can absolutely see the logic in what you're describing here. Plenty of entrepreneurial initiative meets loose ethics potential in the country. I know 45,000 seems like a large number, and in abstract, it is. But in 2020, guns were flying off the shelves. Some reports as many as 23 million were sold. So, it's not hard to imagine that 0.20% of that number could be added on in "ghost guns" from various sources nationwide. The equipment and technical know how is abundant enough.

Sorry to hear, always seemed like a good guy on here, and he'll be missed. May his memory be a blessing.

So, it let me renew. Got an email at about midnight last night that the invoice had been generated. Paid up, you're all stuck with me for another year.

It was the email I got the other day that prompted me. System is working as hoped it seems. I know that doesn't happen by accident, and can't say thanks enough for the unseen work.

Thanks, David. Will it send a reminder email, or do I need to set an alert for myself?

Time for my yearly confusion about this. I got the email that my benefactor status was expiring. Right now I can only see the option to upgrade, not renew. Do I have to wait until it expires on 03/30/2022 to renew?

Sorry to hear. Hoping he can beat the estimate and give others more time with him. I think it's awesome you've still kept up together after all this time.

It's good to see Kris still doing well. Solid guy who helped me out a while back.

While I'm firmly in the "folks should take the jab" camp, I have zero belief the costs are being accurately passed downstream here. The insurance companies are not getting hit with "real costs" as you indicate. During COVID, they have had phenomenal financial results in 2020, and won't be doing too bad in 2021. Think of all the outpatient work they didn't have to pay out...all those surgeries that didn't happen, and all the other routine things. I work in imaging, and we noticed a lot of women just skipped a yearly mammogram. My auto insurance sent some small rebates because they realized folks were driving less...but I got zilch from Blue Cross during the same time.

Had to wait six whole days.