MacGyver

There's already evidence that shelter in place may be working in New York City. They've gone from hospitalizations doubling every 2 days to hospitalizations doubling every 4.7 days in less than a week. We're still a long way from the peak there - but that's good news no matter how you look at it.

Interesting graphs of this morning’s jobless claims: or, graphed against the Great Recession:

3.2 million first time jobless claims last week. That’s a giant number - and way larger than expected.

The math is the truth. Here it is: • Jan. 14 — 0 • Jan. 21 — 1 • Jan. 28 — 5 • Feb. 4 — 11 • Feb. 11 — 14 • Feb. 18 — 25 • Feb. 25 — 59 • Mar. 3 — 125 • Mar. 10 — 1,004 • Mar. 17 — 5,902 • Mar. 24 — 53,478 These are confirmed cases as of each Tuesday here in America. Notice a pattern? There are still a bunch of unknowns. We don’t know if mortality here will rival Italy’s. There are a lot of variables. People smoke there a lot more than here. They have more ICU beds per capita than we do. Who knows? We won’t until we have time to look back. But, on the track we’re on - unless you see those numbers start to go the other way - I expect that by the end of next month - this will rival a war we’ve not seen in a few generations in terms of casualties. Everyone is likely to know someone who has died. We’re still screwing around playing partisan games and trying to assign blame instead of focusing on scaling testing. That’s the only thing that’s going that is going to let us start fighting effectively.

I’ve got an older cousin who will get out of the hospital today. She contracted it early through an unknown source. She’s been in the hospital for 9 days.

And y’all wonder why there’s a run on toilet paper...

Man, I was thinking about you guys earlier today. Prayers for sure.

I kind of appreciate a spammer that puts the work in.

Picture a third of GDP. Or maybe you’d rather picture roughly 9 Bush/Obama era TARP programs put together?

Four of us got together last Saturday and recorded our service in an empty church building. Prayers, readings, sermon, communion meditation, even announcements at the end. We take communion every week, so we got families communion stuff on Saturday if they needed it. Our family sat in the living room and listened and took communion together. Would I have rather been at church? Yes. But, it worked okay. We’ll celebrate when we’re together as a church again. But until then we’ll do the best we can. If anyone needs help trying to pull this off, give me a shout. Happy to help.

Somebody better call Bill Lee then - he just closed schools through the 24th. No church wants to be like the one here in Nashville with 15 cases and counting. I’ll be the first to admit that I dearly miss our people - but pastorally don’t see how we can put them at risk. We’re having to get creative - and it’s less than ideal - but it’s the right thing to do.

Oh man, that’s great to hear!

There's not a medical professional alive that's going to go along with that - it's against their oath. I get it that people are frustrated. As a small business owner - I hope that I've still got a viable business when this thing is done - and that I can last long enough to make it to that point. The two are certainly connected - and there's a balance. There's no universe in which you can focus on one to the exclusion of the other. It's not even a real argument. I'm certain there are people who look at New York and California and think, "that's what they get for living on top of each other in these big cities. It won't be that bad here." But, I'd encourage you to look at what's happening in Lander, Wyoming right now. When this does hit rural America -whose hospitals have already been closed due to "streamlining" - the impact is going to be huge. You're not going to restart the economy until this thing is under control. Full stop. And, until the political class quits playing their zero sum games - the impact to both virus mitigation and the economy multiply each day.

Morality aside - it doesn’t matter what Trump says. The economy isn’t going to open back up until this is under control. It’s not like the economy is just some magic machine - it takes people. And if the people get sick and are dying - they’re not going to work. And, it’s a demand shock that our economy can’t really handle regardless. 80% of American GDP is consumer spending. Well, what happens when no one is buying? I get it that Trump is upset that six of his hotels are closed. I get it that the airlines are upset that no one is flying. I get it that the cruise companies (that are largely foreign flagged to bypass labor laws) are upset no one is taking their vacations. But, if I told you that right now you could fly to New York, take a chartered bus across the city, stay in a nice hotel, have dinner in a fancy restaurant, then get on a cruise the next day and spend the next two weeks touring all the ports in Italy - and you can do it for $20/person. Would you do it? That’s the heart of our problem right now. When you can’t sell at any price - it doesn’t matter what the political class says. People aren’t buying. And, they’re not going to change that behavior until this pandemic is under control.

This is way different than 2008 already. We’re not seeing the economy slow. We’re watching it hit a wall and throw us through the windshield. It’s literally disintegrating in front of our eyes. As a small business owner where most of my clients are small and midsize businesses - we’re all seeing the same thing. We’re hoping our businesses are still here when this is done.

He goes back further than that. He was at NIH during Reagan and Bush. Bush actually praises him for his work on AIDS in an ‘88 debate with Dukakis. He’s 79. He’s very much a pro. He takes some of Trump’s spotlight though - so I doubt he’ll last very long.

Oh, what a shame.

I'm not a betting man - but I'd be surprised if he makes it until the end of next week.

The DNA sequence is public - and have been widely reported on. For example - the Financial Times did deep reporting showing no signs of genetic engineering and that the virus appears to have evolved naturally. I get it that most people aren’t geneticists, and don’t have the scientific background to understand a report like the above. I might suggest that the inverse is also likely true - that most people don’t have the scientific literacy to be able to speak intelligently about it originating from somewhere else, either. There’s an old line about every story needing a bad guy - and the administration is certainly doing everything they can do to label this “the Chinese virus” - but when you see conspiracy theories claiming that it originated somewhere else - maybe give it a critical look. If they’re trying to get you to shift your focus - what are they trying to shift your focus from?

This was a rare bipartisan measure that was passed with unanimous consent - imagine that.

The new junior Senator from Georgia didn’t even wait a month to start front running the market: https://www.thedailybeast.com/sen-kelly-loeffler-dumped-millions-in-stock-after-coronavirus-briefing

If she’s on with Vanderbilt, they ought to get her to the right place if they’re going to test. The state health department has a hotline for COVID-19 cases: 877-857-2945

That’s what they’re asking people to do in California already. Here’s the order: https://www.saccounty.net/news/latest-news/Pages/SacCountyHealthOfficerIssuesCOVID-19Order.aspx As the numbers skyrocket, I’d expect some pretty strict measures.

I mean, this isn’t really a new position for me - but I’d be fine if some of these folks went to prison: https://www.propublica.org/article/senator-dumped-up-to-1-6-million-of-stock-after-reassuring-public-about-coronavirus-preparedness