btq96r

This is a big point. It's not the instant explanation to high gas prices, but it's something that won't shake off anytime soon. The gas companies are going to keep trying to make up for the hit they took two years ago. And then they're going to build a pad for capital expenses or dividends. After that, well...when was the last time you saw a market rate just drop after it's been established enough people will pay it? The only hope for less cost at the pump will be for the companies to try and shiv each other with price drops to pick up market share. But even that would be gradual. Also...while it's early, the EV trend is probably starting to creep into their operating model. Right now, every Tesla that hits the road is a lost customer for them, but the losses aren't big enough for them to scale back operations. So, the gas drivers are going to be absorbing the pass thru cost on that. Right now it's minor, but it's only trending one direction. At some point over the next 10-20 years (my estimation), EVs will be common enough, gas stations will stop growing in locations, or start closing some.

Plenty of kids are struggling with mental issues, get bullied, feel ostracized, and would at first glance be considered discontents. I certainly went through all that as kid throughout a lot of my time in school. I acted out a lot, got into plenty of fights (which wasn't a red flag event back then as long as it wasn't done with a weapon), and had a disregard for authority at times. I like to think I turned out okay in spite of, and in some small ways, through it. One individual, out of the thousands (if not hundreds of thousands) in a similar situation acted out with tragic and horrific results this week. The singular event is almost too much to deep think into the results on, but it's also not enough of an occurrence to think we need some kind of mass religious doctrine put back into society for behavior control. That's not too far different from wanting to ban a certain type of guns every time someone uses them for evil or criminal purposes. I'm honestly more likely to say access to firearms was the biggest enabling cause of this event, not a lack of religious backed morality. If all this person had was a blade, or baseball bat...I doubt he has the determination or ability to kill like he did. But I'll not for a moment think that taking away my right to own an *assault rifle* is the appropriate response for the morally reprehensible actions of another. Just as I would hope the lack of moral center in that individual wouldn't inspire a religious imprint that society feels necessary to impose. Some folks are going to take this as a religion bashing post...it's not. It's an expression that I see forcing religion through society as incongruent with personal liberty. I may be agnostic, but I respect the individual right of religious liberty to an enormous degree. I just don't want a majority's religious choices seeping into my right to embrace agnosticism and be left out of it.

Field of Dreams and Goodfellas are two of my favorite films, so I was of course a fan of his work. Great actor who will be missed.

Sobering view of the expectations that were not met. Worth reading the thread, even if the sources used aren't your usual ones.

It's a real letdown knowing tax dollars are being used to digitally store a pic of every AT&T fiber offer I've gotten in the mail.

You're injecting logic when I'm talking about time travel? You're right though, on the whole, it's no less onerous in one period or another. I just wish I could skip around the rules of special relativity to enjoy a few things.

Very cool. Thanks for sharing. If anyone needs me, I'm gonna time travel and go pick up some of that 9mm at $0.09 per round.

So, less product needing to be moved because the cost of transport has busted the margins (presumably). That's a sign for sure.

What lead to the huge drop in declined loads, was it the supply (more drivers and trucks available) or demand (loads being requested is also way down)?

I'm set....and have a great story to share. https://nashvillemobilemechanic.co/ The guy who runs this service (one man shop) was able to come directly to my location, get in my garage, because his service vehicle is a Ford Ranger kitted out as a mobile toolbox. Where AAA and Firestone couldn't meet the clearance of my garage, this guy saved the day (or at least kept me from pushing the vehicle with someone steering it in neutral out into the street). Super friendly, and was able to swap in a new battery for me no problem. I 'm happy to put money from my pocket into his business account for the services rendered, and glad I found him. I love this kind of entrepreneurial spirit in striking out solo and putting in the work with his own two hands. Says he's staying pretty busy, which I can see in a booming Nashville Metro Area. Despite all my feelings of woe about the economy at large, I think this guy will stay in good shape come what may. Truck is humming along. He said the alternator and everything else he looked at while changing the battery are good to go. Time to get back to work. Thanks again to all for the knowledge you shared.

Starting to have my gut get some confirmation about a recession, even if economists still need to put 2 and 2 together. It's one thing when big tech stocks take a body blow. They have wide swings up and down that aren't abnormal, and they were insanely overvalued these last few years as safe places turned into tar pits for good returns. Seeing them fall is a painful but natural result of the current monetary policy. And aside from Amazon, they don't give a good picture of the economy that's centered around moving product. Walmart, Target, Dollar Tree, Dollar General, Tractor Supply Company...they all got pasted after posting their earnings for Q1. Easy to Google half a hundred articles offering analysis. But I simplify things and look at these companies (and others like them) to think about the spending and consumption habits of everyday people. When these companies have issues, we're not circulating product from producer, to retailer, to consumer as we should be. Like your vascular system, a healthy flow is needed for the body to function. These companies should be able to post steady income over time in normal conditions if the business is being run properly. But normal was so 2019. Their quarterly postings show that the supply chain crunch is still around, the labor market continues to be out of whack, and inflation has become the walls closing in on both companies and consumers alike. When consumers are squeezed and the price elasticity of supply gets funky, recessions happen while companies figure out how to adjust. Economists and government tend to lag in recognizing this while pouring over data. I still continue to think we're in the unrealized/unannounced phase of a recession. Maybe sooner or later someone in a suit at a podium on TV will tell us what truckers, warehouse workers, and regional managers are seeing in real time now.

Not yet. Still trying to peg down a mobile battery replacement service (Firestone's vehicle is too large to clear the entry for the garage. If I can't find one, I'll ask a friend to give me a lift to AutoZone, get what I need, and figure out how to swap it myself. No critters in play. I'm in a pretty urban area where my apartment building is literally the block. Never seen anything with four legs aside from a dog on a leash in the garage.

Thanks for the input everyone. Since I can't even remember when the current battery was put in, I'm going to get it changed out. Have a mobile appointment coming tomorrow for that. I'm about due for an oil change and an AC recharge, so I'll also ask them to check out the terminal clamps as well. Appreciate everyone helping out a guy who's an idiot when it comes to all things under the hood.

Went the weekend without driving it. Tried to head to the office Monday afternoon and realized it wasn't starting. Guessing Advance or Auto Zone need me to get the truck to them for the test?

@10-Ring& @Erik88fixed the video.

Gents, I know squat about vehicles except how to drive them and that gas is required. Can anyone tell me what this problem likely is? I tried jumping the battery from a portable pack and from a friend's vehicle with cables. No dice. It's currently in my apartment garage so if I need to get it to the shop, that's gonna be fun.

Are you tracking that Instagram has women, guns, food, and things actually worth looking at/watching being posted on there?

I always advise folks to get in when they can, and not try to time things. If nothing else, it's just simpler and really doesn't show much difference over long periods (like decades worth). But that chart is really great for reminding us there isn't much that's new, just shades of repeating themes. Think of how bad it looked in each of those years, and what would have happened for someone who panicked.

Cute kid. Surely doesn't get that from you.

It's a double edged sword. I'm with you that this is the right kind of work...going after actual criminal activity in firearms procurement. But the examples will be used to try and close the "private seller" exemption/loophole.

My father was a long haul truck driver for over 30 years. He wasn't a Wall Street wizard, nor had the know how to take his view into any kind of stock strategy...but he knew when things were working well enough, and when things were a mess. If there is a canary in the coal mine on the health of the US economy, it's the trucking industry. A database to amalgamate enough data from the industry would yield an understanding into a substantial size of the economy and forecasting recessions would get a helluva lot easier. You could even drill down into specific sectors with enough data points.

I have a feeling, just a gut one really, that were in a recession and don't know it quite yet.

Spot-on. We have a lot of box checking in the hiring process that should be examined. The "labor shortage" forcing that issue would be a benefit. It's a conversation to have. Work requirements should be on the table to discuss. On a contract job for a DARPA program that was being handed over to big Army, I started to dabble in small things behind the scenes. It wasn't proper coding, but just getting to play with the web.config files of our servers taught me to think with what I now know as paradynamics. It's made me so adaptable to different problems and needs where I can be of benefit to the organization. It's why you see a lot of engineer types in financial analysis (one of which I learned a lot from in my first two years on the current job before he left).

We probably have that now. Our system was not optimized to train well. I suppose my prior comments should come with the disclaimer about that, but I was really talking about the labor market in a competitive sense. When there's real competition for workers, companies can and should undercut each other to attract/retain talent. We're seeing it in a lot of places...nursing is a great example of where a sub-service the whole enterprise can't do without needs to be funded at least a short-term loss to stay solvent. And yeah...you're avoiding the "i word"...but as we reach the realistic work limits of our current population, we'll need more labor to keep things even, and certainly to grow. It's just a question of if we're ready to have a work based system that's used to close gaps, because the primary purpose for the old one was to keep wages suppressed.

Repeat after me: there is no such thing as a labor shortage in a free market. Every job can be filled for the right price. That may be more than acceptable profits for an employer would allow, and I get that means the cost of things go up to correct the margin. But that's not the labor market's fault, that's a consumer issue. If a service or product is too expensive to produce at a point where it can be tendered for a profit...it's either the financial model being unreasonable, or the service/product itself is the problem. This is a healthy purging of inefficiencies in an unbalanced labor market. It's messy now, but good for the long-term. A lot of folks aren't leaving the workforce, they're just switching jobs because hiring is catering to what their current employer for some reason refuses to budge on some things. Expectations are high on that list. I'm seeing this a lot in my place of employment. "Good pay" is subjective when people have finally woken up to realize just how tilted the system really is towards those with equity and their capital partners. I'm still a capitalist despite what some probably think, but if we don't have vibrant jobs that provide an avenue for upward mobility for the middle class, it's Marx/Lenin time sooner rather than later. Workers want more returns from their effort than they're getting. Right now, there is so much competition that for the first time in a long time, they have options to seek that. They're also seeing out other incentives than W2 comp. A lot of folks will come back to the office kicking and screaming, and look for a job where that's not required. I applaud those who put family and personal happiness over a false satisfaction they get from working themselves to the bone. I'm not able to be among them yet, but that's a psychological flaw on me I hope to work out someday. We let ourselves become our work before other things, and a sociological change was pretty much overdue.