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TGO David

After We've Sheltered In Place. COVID-19. Coronavirus.

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As our country works hard to manage-down the rate at which people present the acute effects of COVID-19, to keep from overwhelming the limited resources in our hospitals, we also need to be figuring out how to get the economy going again by returning people to work.

Medical evidence thus far substantiates the theory that once a person is exposed to and overcomes C19, they are resistant (if not immune) to reinfection. Those people should be allowed to return to their jobs so that they can resume earning a living, prevent their own personal bankruptcies, and get America moving again.

There is no tenable strategy for keeping American businesses shut down long-term. Government subsidies aren't enough and will drain our country's coffers of money that it needs for other things. Sooner or later that well will run dry.

Many of us are fortunate that we can work from home but you can't "virtually" build roads, construct buildings, manufacture consumer goods, or provide services that require human touch and interaction. There are a lot of people who are sitting idle right now, watching their bank accounts quickly draw down to a zero-dollar balance.

The people need to start petitioning their elected representatives at the local, state, and federal level, to balance the urgent desire to deprive C19 of a means of transmission via quarantine with the urgent need to keep the pilot-light of our nation's economy from flickering and burning out.

Relighting it won't be easy and more businesses are going to become casualties as each day passes.

 

Just my cheerful Sunday-morning thoughts on things.  Take 'em or leave 'em.  :)

 

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The problem here is that very few businesses are a one man operation. You can't reopen or get back to work unless you have enough survivors to keep the place running. I'm afraid we're no where near that point yet. 

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Agreed, most businesses will require most people to return to work to resume anywhere close to normal. That requires special safety precautions and equipment that we are being told is not available right now. But it is being worked on.

Our economy crashing would be worse than this virus. Sorry, that’s just what I believe. We can’t shut our economy down for weeks or months. I think most are coming to the same conclusion.

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Oh, I completely agree on that. This virus will go down in history not because of the death toll, but for the economic toll its taken on our entire  world. But at this point there's little we can do about it. 

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Posted (edited)

I agree that it's quickly becoming time to turn the economy back on. I also think this may fundamentally change business. Thousands of businesses have gone 100% virtual in the last month, and continued to function normally.  How many of those won't go back?  Why pay rent on office space that you've been forced to learn you didn't really need?  How many will realize their employees are happier now?  Significant potential for the other side of this to look quite different. 

Edited by peejman
Changed become to becoming, see below.
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3 minutes ago, peejman said:

I agree that it's quickly become time to turn the economy back on. I also think this may fundamentally change business. Thousands of businesses have gone 100% virtual in the last month, and continued to function normally.  How many of those won't go back?  Why pay rent on office space that you've been forced to learn you didn't really need?  How many will realize their employees are happier now?  Significant potential for the other side of this to look quite different. 

Marking this for later comment when I’m not on mobile. 

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14 minutes ago, peejman said:

I agree that it's quickly become time to turn the economy back on. I also think this may fundamentally change business. Thousands of businesses have gone 100% virtual in the last month, and continued to function normally.  How many of those won't go back?  Why pay rent on office space that you've been forced to learn you didn't really need?  How many will realize their employees are happier now?  Significant potential for the other side of this to look quite different. 

Maybe. Companies that haven’t already done that if it’s a possibility, might do it. But my WAG is that is a very small percentage of businesses. Most companies making a product can’t do that. The backbone of our economy is our blue-collar working class.

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Just now, DaveTN said:

Maybe. Companies that haven’t already done that if it’s a possibility, might do it. But my WAG is that is a very small percentage of businesses. Most companies making a product can’t do that. The backbone of our economy is our blue-collar working class.

True. If I had the ability, I could do some of my job online, but not all of it. I could easily envision a rotating schedule in our group where at least one of us is in the shop all the time while another works from home. We've proposed that very thing several times and have been rebuffed every time without any discussion or explanation. 

And my above post should be "becoming" rather than "become".  We're not at the end yet, but it won't be long. 

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7 minutes ago, peejman said:

True. If I had the ability, I could do some of my job online, but not all of it. I could easily envision a rotating schedule in our group where at least one of us is in the shop all the time while another works from home. We've proposed that very thing several times and have been rebuffed every time without any discussion or explanation. 

And my above post should be "becoming" rather than "become".  We're not at the end yet, but it won't be long. 

That was also discussed many times where I worked; and dismissed. To do that you have to have people you can trust to work without supervision. We didn’t have enough of those type people; most of our people must have constant supervision. I would have fired a bunch of them, but it was impossible to find replacements that would live where our facility was. We had a couple of programmers that were contract workers that worked from home.

What kind of job do you have that doesn’t require you to be at your employers facility?

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Here is my idea. Allow the low risk under-40 population to return to work.  Depending on the industry, that could be up to half the workforce. 

Supervisors over the age of 40 could work from home via a combination of virtual and physical presence.  First, you'd need a physical body with a body cam connected to a supervisor at home by audio and video. This surrogate could walk around, supervise, and provide instructions or OJT training to new employees. The surrogate could either be an unemployed worker or a person who the company wants to groom for a supervisory position. 

Businesses could reopen, provided no employees or customers over the age of 40 would be allowed. Obviously, this wouldn't work for all supervisory jobs and the approach might need to be modified.

Meanwhile, the 40-60 group would be under stay at home orders and the 60+ population would be quarantined for the foreseeable future. Arrangements would be made to deliver essential goods to the 60+ population. Again, this could be done with unemployed workers.

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Posted (edited)

 

“The point is there are ZERO non-essential jobs in even our nominally free (though massively government controlled) market.  If a job doesn't generate income, it goes away.

The question comes down to: How many people are you willing to starve and murder over a virus that the experts agree won't be significantly worse than the four previous major viruses, in the last half century?  And if you can't name them without looking, then your opinion is irrelevant.

EVERY business is essential to the owner, the employees, and the families.

Any politician speaking of a "non-essential" business is an idiot and should be removed from office. Because lamppost decorators need work, too.“

 

 

 

http://www.michaelzwilliamson.com/blog/index.php?itemid=543&fbclid=IwAR30fIY8IVCG0_AMm5r5EB8N9WNnA0WIydavLxs5WKPuiUCPFBNcAnu2ZCE

Edited by Chucktshoes
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The under 40 group aren't immune to the virus, they simply have the best chance of surviving it without becoming seriously ill. They do however, have the best possibility of becoming carriers and spreading it. 

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25 minutes ago, Chucktshoes said:

Good read. At some point either hard choices must be made, or we stand by hand wringing while our country goes down the tubes.

I have said before I am not a financial expert. But I know how manufacturing works and how it impacts our economy.

To keep our economy from collapsing both businesses and individual workers will have to make choices, hard choices. You can’t ask people that are scared to work if they don’t want to. But you can ask people to work that know what the risks are, and are willing to take them.

The government can’t decide who can work, what businesses can stay open etc. That is going to have to be done by the individual businesses and the individual workers.

This won’t be over until a vaccine or a cure is found for this. The experts are still saying that short of a miracle that normally would take 12-18 months or even longer. So this, “Lets stay home for a couple of more weeks” is BS. Nothing is going to change in a couple of weeks.

Businesses that are willing to keep their workers working and pay them should be the first to get monetary help from the government. But the liberals/socialists are worried that business may get some money, and of course that’s evil as far as they can see.

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4 hours ago, TGO David said:

 

Medical evidence thus far substantiates the theory that once a person is exposed to and overcomes C19, they are resistant (if not immune) to reinfection. Those people should be allowed to return to their jobs...

I've been doing my family's grocery shopping for the last month or so.  Yesterday, I made my bi-weekly trip to the store, and chose Walmart so that I could get all that I had on my list in one place. There were several people with elementary school-aged children, toddlers, and even infants.

Initially, I thought they were either careless or oblivious, but then I realized that this is likely akin to chicken pox exposure for children, and that exposing our otherwise healthy children is likely the best way to build immunity. After all,  thats the same thing any new vaccine for coronavirus is going to do. 

I'm not confident enough in my assumption to rush my healthy 8 year old out into public seeking exposure, but I do feel that natural exposure is preferable to whatever new vaccine arrives.

I also assume that those persons who are exposed/infected and recovered, have an advantage over the rest of us.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, bud said:

I'm not confident enough in my assumption to rush my healthy 8 year old out into public seeking exposure, but I do feel that natural exposure is preferable to whatever new vaccine arrives.

I also assume that those persons who are exposed/infected and recovered, have an advantage over the rest of us.

Quote

 

RISKS TO HERD IMMUNITY

Mass vaccination has been highly successful in inducing herd immunity for many diseases, protecting those that are unable to build up immunity, such as people with immune deficiencies or whose immune systems are being suppressed for medical reasons. 

When herd immunity is well established, however, some people choose to behave as ‘free riders’, essentially benefitting from everyone else getting vaccinated, while abstaining from vaccination either because they choose not to or are actively anti-vaccination.  

When a population has too many of these free riders, the overall immunity level is compromised and herd immunity can be lost, putting everyone at risk.

https://www.gavi.org/vaccineswork/what-herd-immunity

 

I will take the vaccine as soon as its available. That will be my contribution to the cause.

Edited by DaveTN

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, DaveTN said:

 

Oh, I'm no anti-vaccer. My children have had all the shots they were due. Just saying that much like chicken pox, you want your children exposed in their youth so as to avoid a more harsh case of symptoms as an adult.

Furthermore, if my youngest were exposed, tested later to prove exposure, and afforded a waiver for whatever new coronavirus vaccine that is developed, then this would be a preferable outcome. 

Edited by bud
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16 minutes ago, bud said:

Oh, I'm no anti-vaccer. My children have had all the shots they were due. Just saying that much like chicken pox, you want your children exposed in their youth so as to avoid a more harsh case of symptoms as an adult.

Furthermore, if my youngest were exposed, tested later to prove exposure, and afforded a waiver for whatever new coronavirus vaccine that is developed, then this would be a preferable outcome. 

It’s my understanding they already have a vaccine in testing, possibly more than one. I’m not sure why the testing procedure is a year, but it appears that is what it is and that can’t be rushed. Because of the possibility of killing the patient months after the vaccination I would guess??

But it's going to take having that vaccine before things get back to "normal".

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On the subject of jobs and careers...

We are in the beginning stages of a great reprioritization for the vast majority of society.  Consumers, worker bees and captains of industry will at some point this year begin to evaluate what is necessary and what isn't.

I predict that we are going to see a significant shift in the way that people around the world spend their time and their money.  Some of the positive things that I would like to see result are people spending more time with their families and loved ones, more time on themselves improving their health or just getting out and enjoying life, and less time being a slave to debt and therefore a slave to the grindstone.  I want to see companies realize that some jobs simply don't require an in-person presence in order for the worker to be productive and effective.  I want to see the notion of 4-5 days crammed into an office, doing a job that we're doing right now from remote, come to an end.

What I think is likely to happen from a negative perspective is that as people do the above, a lot of people are going to shift away from spending money on extravagent and frivilous things -- for at least a time -- and invest in the things that they wish they'd done ahead of this pandemic.  The result may be that "pet ferret pube groomer" will no longer be a viable career, and a lot of businesses that provide nice-to-haves will cease to exist.

If you scale back from the extreme of ferret groin sylists and look at other things that are nice to have, I think you'll see entertainment, dining and personal luxury businesses fold up too.  Honestly I think we may see movie theaters and gymnasiums become a relic of the past as people bring both of those activities back under their own roofs.  Technology and the quality of consumer equipment in both of those spaces is such now that you really shouldn't have to go mingle with crowds of strangers and pay high prices to get good results.

 

Frankly, I think a lot of people who had established careers in things that essentially required benevolent patrons or self-indulgent consumers to support them are going to end up having to reinvent themselves, learn a valuable trade, or starve.

It's probably a really good time to start talking to your high-school aged kids about what sort of jobs are absolutely necessary to society and encourage them to look really hard at those as career prospects.  The world honestly doesn't need very many computer animation artists or professional cos-play actors.  But I bet it will almost always need folks who know how to build shelter, grow food, install plumbing, wire up electricity, provide medical care and so forth.

 

We're going to get a real gut-check about what's important and what's fluff on the back side of this whole thing.  Don't be surprised when it happens.

 

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36 minutes ago, DaveTN said:

It’s my understanding they already have a vaccine in testing, possibly more than one. I’m not sure why the testing procedure is a year, but it appears that is what it is and that can’t be rushed. Because of the possibility of killing the patient months after the vaccination I would guess??

But it's going to take having that vaccine before things get back to "normal".

Any new drug goes through phases of human trials.  They're going to start with a small group to see if there's any major adverse effects and if the results show promise.  If all goes well, they move into a larger test group and repeat a few more times with larger groups each time.  If they get the efficacy they are looking for, and adverse events.are acceptable, then the drug will be released.  That's the short version without IND filing,  IRB's, etc.  A new drug release in normal circumstances is substantially longer than a year, but I guess in thsee types of scenarios the rules are eased.

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TGO David I would like to see those things too but I think many folks will forget a lot of what has happened within a year.

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Posted (edited)

Ok, that's weird. 

Edited by peejman

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38 minutes ago, TGO David said:

On the subject of jobs and careers...

Good post, I’ll add that a person’s perspective is formed by the industry they are in.

This area and Huntsville are big in aerospace production, automotive, and large stamping. I most recently worked in a company that specialized in large 5 axis machining for airplane manufacturers. There was no work from home jobs really. Sure, in a perfect world, programmers could possibly do their jobs from home, but this isn’t a perfect world, and when parts are created with their programs that don’t pass quality; they often need to inspect the set-up on the shop floor and interface with the operators and set-up people to see what’s wrong, and how to fix it.

In machining, working from home is not the answer.

 Everyone wants a job at a desk. So, they go to College and get a degree. Then they find out their jobs are a dime a dozen and those guys on the shop floor that can both run and program a CNC machine making aircraft, automotive, medical, or gun parts; makes more than them, without a degree.

Our company could hire CAD operators and Engineers all day long at low wages for entry level positions but trying to hire machinists is much harder.

Kids need to know that everyone isn’t cut out for college. And they don’t need to be saddled with a bunch of student debt for a degree that they don’t need to make very good money. Machinists, Toolmakers, Mold Makers, Electricians, Welders, Electronics techs and repair Techs (along with many others) are all jobs where you can make very good money and don’t need a degree to do it. Problem is, you don’t make that kind of money to start, you have to prove yourself, everyone is not treated equal, and you must be willing to move to where the work is that will bring the kind of money you want.

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Posted (edited)

And still weird.  Must have done something strange with my phone. 

Edited by peejman

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6 minutes ago, DaveTN said:

you have to prove yourself, everyone is not treated equal, and you must be willing to move to where the work is that will bring the kind of money you want.

I bet this is another harsh realization that people have to come to terms with as well.

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3 hours ago, DaveTN said:

What kind of job do you have that doesn’t require you to be at your employers facility?

I'm an engineer, I fix broken jet engines.  Part of my job does require that I be there to see and touch things and direct work. Part of my job is simply pushing paper that I could do from nearly anywhere as long as I had network access.  I'd also wager the paperwork part could get more efficiently at a location where I don't get interrupted every 10 minutes.  

And as you've said above, there's a huge difference between a machinist and a machine operator. The difference is apparent when dealing with parts that cost more than your house.  

A number of the machinists,  mechanics, and inspectors make more than the engineers do with overtime, so yes I also agree that not everyone needs to go to college.  You've got to have more Indians than chiefs, though corporate America doesn't seem to get that. 

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